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A blank day yesterday, which isn't the end of the world as there were only two selections, and we've had a decent amount of winners in the last couple of weeks. Today's racing is top class, so sit back and enjoy.
Longchamp 3:05
This race is likely to be dominated by 3yo's for the top of the market, and you can't really argue with their form which they have shown this season. This race has often been good for the older horses, and I'm siding with one to potentially cause an upset.
The Japanese horse who seems to be getting all the attention is Chrono Genesis, but frankly, I think she's got no chance whatsoever (probably come back to bite me). She clearly appreciates fast ground, which is something she definitely will not get. She is drawn 14 out of 15, which makes life extremely difficult, but also the stats are against her. A 5yo mare hasn't won this race in 70+ years, so in my opinion the Japanese horse they need to focus on is DEEP BOND, who has a much better chance.
With the forecast rain likely to turn the ground into an absolute swamp, it's going to make it very stamina testing, so you want to be on a horse who will see the trip out well. Deep Bond is a horse who has form over 2m, so the stamina is definitely not in doubt with this horse. But you'd think a horse who stays 2m wouldn't be good over this shorter trip, and I had the same opinion until his last race where he put me firmly in my place. He won the Prix Foy (Group 2) beating Broome, and it was a very good run, and never looked like getting passed by Broome. That was on good ground and wasn't ran at a fast pace, so I'd expect today's conditions to bring out further improvement. The Prix Foy has been a good stepping stone for the Arc is recent years with both Waldgeist & Found using it as a warm up race for the Arc.
Another thing to note is that he is drawn in Stall 5 and wanted to race prominently last time out, so there is a chance he'll make use of that low stall and get a prominent position to put his stamina against the rest.
Longchamp 5:00
SPEAK OF THE DEVIL. In my opinion she offers the best value in the race, as her French form is up there with the best on offer.
Space Blues is the current market favourite, and will probably remain the favourite until the time of the race, as he is a previous Group 1 winner, and is a 7f specialist. However, he is far too short for my liking based on what we've seen from him this season. I took him on at Goodwood when he was making his seasonal reappearance, and I was rightly to do so, with Kinross winning nicely. Space Blues then went on to win at York, and although he won by 1.5 lengths, I'm not 100% sold on the form. The runner-up finished 4th in a Group 3, and even though Glorious Journey won next time out, it was a weak Group 2 in which he won.
Speak Of The Devil holds a similar form line to Sagamiyra, so if you fancy the latter, you must like the chances of the selection. The selection was a short head behind Sagamiyra who finished second to Mother Earth in the Prix Rothschild. We know the form of Mother Earth is strong, but the fact that the selection got that close to Sagamiyra was impressive as she was held up and would've gone much closer if she was positioned closer to the pace. The same can be said again where she was poorly positioned, and ultimately finished 3rd, 1.25 lengths behind Sagamiyra. She was slightly hampered when trying to make up the ground, and she was staying on strongly. Today's conditions of soft ground will be in her favour, and I think the price discrepancy between the two horses is far too big.
A wide stall in this race is also a bad thing, with only two horses in the last ten years winning this race from a double digit stall. Speak Of The Devil is drawn in stall 3, and even though we've seen her be held up in the past, I'm hoping she tracks the leaders, as it is so important not to get too far back in this race, where the field size is quite big. She has the ability, so we just need to hope the jockey gives her a good ride.
Tipperary 3:15
GLENQUIN CASTLE is ridiculously well handicapped based on his chase form of recent runs.
I understand that horses are generally better over one type of obstacle, whether that's a fence or a hurdle, but I don't think that this lad is terrible over the latter even though he is 0/5 over them, and is 3/8 over fences. Until the last three runs he was 0/5 over fences as well, but the key to his success clearly looks like a step up in trip. Since they've moved him up to 3m he has won every single time, and he's never had that opportunity over hurdles. He has raced as far as 2m 5f over hurdles, so it's not right to say that he can't win over hurdles, as that trip appears to be too short. He is rated 108 over fences, and is 85 over hurdles. Now he's been given a chance over a trip which suits, I find it very hard to see him not going close in this race.
There is a chance that he'll be strongly supported, but you can see why, and it wouldn't put me off from backing him, unless he goes shorter than EVS.
In December 2020 we sadly 
Ill try first 4 across artic warrior,,,saldier,,, hot on my heels,,,,natasha,,,G,L
Space blues 5-00 longchamp 11-4 🇫🇷
I’m reading conflicting reports on this horse”s ability of soft or worse.
It’s 50-50 some say ground no issue, some say something to prove if ground worse than soft.
Any thoughts people’s ?
Have put half stake on and other half will be on if feedback is positive.
Sagayiuma looks a danger at 13-2 if space blues doesn’t go with the mud flying
RIZZELL says Kinross beat space blues nicely at Goodwood into 4th but it was only a neck, head, neck so nothing in it really.
That was his 1st race since march and won at York after, also 1-1 at longchamp.
Class horse in the race mate but he doesn’t have winning form on soft and hasn’t even ran on heavy.
I would wait to see the ground they could get as much as 40mil turning the opened up course into a ploughed field.
You can see the soft ground horses shortening up in quite a few races.
Looks hard this one,, draw might come into affect here,but i put sagamiyra in my Yanke, its all down to this rain whoever doesn’t handle the muck will come unstuck,, and will the French jockeys just roll over ,not so sure,, but i took sagamiyra and snowfall
Aye Deb can see a few big odds horses placing like mojo star maybe.
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Arc de triomphe.
Again ground dependant but adayer if he goes on heavy stays the trip and will be running on when others are easing up,
Again I stress IF he goes on heavy.
Will have an ew extra dabble on mojo star, the horse Who followed adayer home in the derby, with hurricane run 3rd, then came 2nd in the st leger, so stays well.
Mojo star also skipped an engagement on Friday at Ascot for this so I don’t think he is here as a pacemaker, ew extra pays 7 places, be happy with 7th.
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1-15 zellie 8-1 ew extra 4 places.
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3-05
Adayar win 4-1
Mojo star 16-1 ew extra 7 places
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5-00 space blues 11-4
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Yeh I done Mojo star few days ago at 33s 5 places and Tarnawa 7/2.
You can also see why the money has come for the Hurricane stays further and goes on heavy.
GL mate raining just now in Paris and has been during the night supposedly.
🇺🇸🐎
Santa Anita Trixie for intrest(**)
R8…Dr Schivel
R9…Luck
R10…Tripoli.
An it’s onwards to France giving it he haw he haw! 🇫🇷🇯🇵🇮🇪🇬🇧
@Elvis….that Medina Spirit you tipped about a month ago we were both on won again at Santa Anita,I was well snoozing by then but beat better horses and one to note. Don’t know why I hadn’t already noted it.
One that’s on my tracker or ‘of note’ is me auld mate Seliway in the Arc at 50/1 as his younger form was very impressive at times.
ATR guy fancies him Ew too so I’ll have a £1 or 3 on him.
GL
I remember that,jumped off the page on that occasion.
to be honest if I ever do a usa horse it’s because I’m bored or had a bad day elsewhere ☺️
I leave the American stuff to like of yourself recoba as you know that scene.
Breeders cup is probably the only time I watch it as there are many British horses there 🇺🇲.
I’ve started looking at french jumps recently as a lot of them are poached by trainers here and it’s interesting trying to spot a good un before the like of Nicholls or Henderson poach them.
There is one called l’automonie who has won 12 of its last 14 races for Francois Nicole) top dog over there as a trainer.
I’m surprised that hasn’t been bought as it’s only 6 and is wasting it’s time winning Poxy races at odds of 2-9 etc.
He races against the same horses most times, galop de Marin, and Paul’s saga mainly
Love to see what he could do in top hurdle races over here 🇫🇷
Mauritius
10:05 – manetheren 2/1
10:40 – Nimitz 9/2
11:15 – captain gone wild 3/1
4:00 uttoxeter- milk wood 6/4 nap
Nuts well 3-40 kelso 🏇.
Won this race twice before and is 4-1 for a hat trick, his form last year was pretty good in decent company, aye right and cracking destiny were behind him in this race last year.
Now I’ve split my bet again with 2 betting without bets at 5-2 so if it wins I get 5-1 in winnings Instead of the 4-1 SP and if its 2nd to either king d’argent or ballyoisin I got a bit of insurance and still make profit
Anything else and it’s a loss which is normal 🤣.
Betting without king d’argent 5-2 @ HILLS.
Betting without ballyoisin 5-2 @ BET365.
Still away in the sun, but it’s Arc day and on paper it looks a cracker if they all run their race.
Appelby’s horses have been way ahead of the rest this season and both will be right there at the finish but you won’t get rich backing either.
The only thing putting me off them is they are both by Frankel who is yet to win an Arc. Not saying it can’t happen today but for me I’d need to see proof first.
Tarnawa by Cape Cross (2 previous wins) must also have every chance but can a 5yr old win ? Only 3 have done so since 1976.
Snowfall could bounce back from her last run but AOB’s record with 3rd olds in the race is poor.
I’ve had a modest ew on Raabihah at 28’s 4 places. Yes she has a bit to find with Tarnawa but she’s a year older now and doesn’t have the best of draws. She was 5th in the race last year so has experience on her side. She won a poor Gr2 lto but her head was in her chest that day and won as she liked.
The French horses get written off each year by the English and Irish media but year after year they are in the mix at the finish.
Raabihah 28/1 ew 4 places
BOL
Good morning,
Arc day has arrived and what a line up of runners we have to choose from. You can make small claims for about nearly all of them.
But this race will all all come down to stamina. From what I’ve been told the ground is running on the soft/heavier side to things and the french soft/heavy is a nasty piece of work. It’s sticky it’s messy and really takes its toll on a horses engine and mental ability to keep focused at the job in hand.
Taking all that into consideration I’m taking Hurricane Lane to win the Arc.
I think the market is already pretty telling with Hurricane having course form and the positive draw of stall 2. We all know this horse has plenty of stamina and determination to horse racing.
I’m willing to draw a line through his defeat to Adayar in the derby. He lost a shoe and Buick didn’t give him a proper ride that day.
Adayar has stall 11 to overcome he also didn’t have prep run. He also has a habit of pulling and that’s be shown countless times throughout his still impressive career.
With most firms going 4 places and going to go for a larger each way selection. This race could possibly set up well for horses patiently ridden in behind who have form on heavy. Picking up the pieces when the big boys go for glory as such..
One horse that has form on heavy is Alenquer for William Haggas and Tom Marquad. His form reading in Class 1 group/listed races reads 12-1132 which at least reads consistency. Obviously today’s race is a different kettle of fish all together but he looks to me the best of the rest after your obvious front 5 market leaders.
NAP – Hurricane Lane – just been backed into 11/4
Each way punt – Alenquer 14/1 ( 4 places )
Good luck today
Some nice special on Paddy powers tarnwa and audarya to win 40’1 not a bad shout
Uttoxeter 1.37 BLENDED STEALTH 16/1
Uttoxeter 2.12 SCARTARE 20/1
Both prices widely available and each way
Good luck everyone
No need for big stakes today just a joy to watch this quality days racing with on paper 1 of the best Arcs in years.
Singles from earlier in the week.
Mojo star ew 33s 1st 5 Tarnawa 7/2
5.00 Kinross 11/2
EW LYCKY 15
1.15 Zellie 10s
3.05 Mojo star 40s
3.50 Palmas 9s
5.30 Brouillard 8s
GL Fokes
Not bother with my 2 cents worth bar Godolphin been to good this season but Adayar missed an outing so…
Small bets and best watched with a bet and one that’s on my tracker or ‘of note’ is me auld mate Seliway in the Arc at 50/1 as his younger form was very impressive at times.
Now ATR guy Laurent B fancies him Ew too I’ll have a £1 or 3 on him but he’s possibly blinkered like me as he’s done so well for me in the past but at that price I’ll take it!!
GL
Seliway been close 2nd to recently retired St Marks Besillica.
Kevin Blake on ITV also tipped Seliway at 50s 👍
Kevin Blake on ITV also tipped Seliway at 50s 👍
Nice start debs
Cheers there will be a rule 4 but hopefully I’ll atleast get another couple placed or mojo star win would be nice 🤣🤣 👍
I put your bottom 4 in 5p ew 4fold ,the bet pays 300,50pound this will be my bigest win,,,,nodoubtaboutthat,,14’05 Tipperary
Nice start, zellie wins, rule 4 though probably so won’t be getting 8-1
Well done debs, seen you were on too 👍
Yeh I read last night the fav probably wouldn’t run
Accakaba in the 1:50 Longchamp. Looks value. Not many fillies win this race but giving it a go
Dawn raider 2.15
Lol bloody germans ,,never even entered my mind and snowfall never showed up
Wow did anyone have that German winner?
What was Buick doing on Adayar kicking for home atleast 1f to early
If you did ,you better go get your lottery ticket now , they say the ground was to soft for snowfall,then he says it run a good race ,i dont so ,, nice one riss have your 3 in Yanke ,just waiting on a few
Just like that the bookies line their pockets.
80/1 Upset.. how can you even compete with that.
Space Blues my final for today. 5:00
Good luck
Lucky Glenquin castle got a big nose !
Superb Rizzel but your heart must have stopped like mine 10 strides from the line 🤦♂️🤦♂️
Longchamp 5:30
French conte – 10/1 💰🤣
Nuts well 🏇😆.
Happy with that
2x 5-2 bets win
It was 5-1 SP so made the same as straight win anyways.
Easy money kid !
Nice one with nuts well Elvis soon as hello judge lost I knew it was going to win as people prob would of been put off by that or sometimes it goes the other way round they win on the fav so they think the bigger price one will win as well for a nice double that’s a pattern I seen a few times anyway 😂 but apart from that good work
risk and roll 4.35
Nice1 Elvis & Cairnzy Space blues waaaaay to good performance of the day.
Thanks Deb,
11/4 was a steal for that one. Ground conditions reflective of but even so that was the race he was aimed for.
Punters will have made a few quid back on them from the Arc anyway.
6:00 Longchamp- Marillaman – 8/1 😂💰
Zellie ☑️
Nuts well ☑️☑️
Space blues ☑️
Arc de Deutschland ❎
🇩🇪 Bloody Germans 🇩🇪
Notice a German horse also placed at 100-1 in the 5-00 🇩🇪
In fact the last 4 races at longchamp has had a 40-1+ placed, ground no doubt caused this anomaly
Good day for you well done 👍
Sealiway made the first 5 at 40/1 unknowingly to me that paid with Paddy Power.
Pity rest of the day! Lol
Treble for USA and single on first pick..
Belmont -R4…Annapolis. 11/8
Woodbine-R7…Artie 5/4
Santa Anita -R8…Mackinnon. 13/8
GL
Hopefully the 3rd lands for you 👍💰
BOOM …………………………………………………………………………
Annapolis
Recoba are your other two selections strongly fancied ?
Thanks x
Yeah mate. But my lucks been out with a wrong pick here or there too much lately.
See how Artie goes but think I’ll have a single on Mackinnon if 13/8 if it’s still available as he beat the 2nd favourite 2 runs back and it he’s got plenty of improvement to come and as of the others less exposed it’ll take a big step up win.