I thought it was a strange ride by Buick on Redorange, as it looked like he gave up.
The horse was keen, but not keen enough to suggest his finishing effort was done when Buick decided to throw the towel in. I don't think he would have won, but it's so frustrating watching a supposed ‘top-class' jockey down tools and not ride out to the finish because he can't be bothered. These rides need to be called out, as when it's on a lesser-known jockey, they get punished.
Champonie broke well at Chester, much better than I thought. I really expected him to win after getting a prominent position, but he had nothing to give when he came under pressure, turning for home. He was weak before the race, which leaves a very sour taste.
Afjan 15/8 (2pt) – Chantilly 2.53
The main horse in this race is the favourite Sajir, but I am not sold that this trip is what he needs. His best form has been over longer trips. He has never run over five furlongs, but over the extended five, he has run twice, and the RPR of those two runs was 104 and 109. Based on that, Afjan must be in with a huge shout.
My selection is a three-year-old, so he gets the weight-for-age allowance of 8lbs for this time of year. He looks more like a natural five-furlong horse, and his recent RPR over this trip was worthy of a 109. Given he has plenty of weight from the favourite, and they have both produced the same rating, my selection should probably be the favourite.
The form of his runs this season looks fairly solid. He was second to Rayevka in a Group 3, and the time before, he was third, ahead of Moojeed. I can't see how Moojed can reverse the form, so I had it as a straight shootout between Sajir and Afjan, but felt like my selection had more natural pace.
Daryzan 9/2 (1pt) – Chantilly 3.30
The profile of Daryzan isn't one that I usually give a chance to in a race of this stature. I've given chances to horses like this in the past, who look like they could be very smart, but then aren't ready for the big day. However, I'm going to let this one slide on Daryzan, and that's mainly due to the pedigree of this horse.
The Aga Khan Stud and Francis-Henri Graffard have been on fire over the last two to three years, and they could have another smart horse on their hands with Daryzan. He is a half-brother to last year's Arc winner, as well as many other 100+ rated horses. From what I can see, none of his siblings was as impressive as he was on his debut at the start of May. He put up a performance worthy of 100, which is a serious start to life as a racehorse.
This is an obvious step up in grade, as this is the French Derby. Constitution River is the right favourite, and has to be respected from a very wide draw. But if he can't get a clean run, I can definitely see Daryzan running a big race and progressing from his first run.
GambleAware