Factual 7/4 – Carlisle 4.55
Factual was the first fancy of this Lucky 15 that I was tempted to stick in the main thread, but I opted to only have two selections over there.
On paper, I think you've got to say that Factual has a superb chance of winning this, and that's why he is the 7/4 favourite. He ran well from the rear at Chester over an extended seven furlongs, and if he can reproduce that type of run over slightly further, he should win this.
I think the form of that race could work out nicely. I had Moonfall in that race, who was behind Factual, and I think he is a horse who is on a good mark. The winner was picked ahead of Moonfall, so he must be a bit better than what we've seen.
There are a few in this who will likely be better than their current handicap marks, but from what we know, the Factual form is the best on offer.
Believeitanducan 6/4 – Chester 2.53
The second horse that was close to being in the main thread was Believeitanducan, the only reason I didn't was that he was getting quite short in the market at 6/4.
I think he could have gotten off lightly by the handicapper with the 4lb increase for his win at Ascot. I think that formline is solid as a rock. The runner-up had previously finished second to Shrimp Shady, who has franked the form a couple of times, including at Chester in a solid handicap.
Billy Loughnane is riding out of his skin at the moment, and I don't think you could ask for a better man in the saddle, unless it's Ryan Moore.
The Dancing Pirate 4/1 – Beverley 2.48
I could be wrong in saying this, as it could be a similar race, but I'm fairly confident that Andrew Balding has sent a couple of his useful novices for this race in the last five years.
The Dancing Pirate was well-fancied on his debut at Newmarket and didn't run badly. The form of that race has started to work out quite nicely, and given that Andrew's horses do tend to come on for their run, I thought he could be too big a price at 4/1.
Wadacre Geisha 3/1 – Beverley 4.32
This is not a race I'd normally get involved in, but Wadacre Geisha looks too big of a price to ignore.
How many times have we seen a Johnston horse run from the front and not be caught? The answer to that is plenty. In a small field event like this, I can't see why it can't happen again. The top two in the market are closely matched, and I would favour Vietnorm to come on top of that duel again, but I thought Wadacre Geisha could beat them both.
He likes to run from the front, and if they allow him to dictate the race on his own terms, it could get extremely messy for those in behind. The third-placed horse from last time out won at Chepstow on Friday, so it looks like it's decent form, as far as Class 6 races go.
GambleAware