England continue their World Cup preparations with the first of two warm up fixtures in Florida, taking on New Zealand at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa before facing Costa Rica four days later.
Thomas Tuchel will be looking for a more convincing international window after England were held by Uruguay and beaten by Japan in March, results that interrupted the momentum generated by a flawless World Cup qualifying campaign.
England won all eight matches in Group K, scored 22 goals and did not concede once, underlining the gulf in quality between themselves and most of the nations outside football's elite tier.
New Zealand arrive in Florida after a heavy 4-0 defeat to Haiti and face a significant step up in class against one of the tournament favourites. With Croatia, Ghana and Panama awaiting England in Group L, this looks an ideal opportunity to build confidence and rhythm before the real business begins.
How the bookies view it
England are overwhelming favourites at 1/7, with the market assigning them an 87.5% chance of victory. New Zealand are priced at 22/1, giving them only a 4.3% chance of causing an upset, while the draw is available at 10/1, a 9.1% probability.
The goals market expects a relatively comfortable England win, with over 2.5 goals priced at 1/2, implying a 66.7% chance, while both teams to score is available at 15/8, implying a 34.8% probability.
Head to head: little recent history
These nations have met only twice before, both friendlies played in New Zealand during June 1991. England won both encounters, although with 35 years having passed since the last meeting there is little value in looking for historical trends.
Player to watch: Harry Kane to continue his scoring record
Harry Kane heads into this fixture after another prolific campaign for Bayern Munich, scoring 33 goals across all competitions and finishing as the Bundesliga's leading scorer. His international form has been equally impressive. Kane scored eight goals in eight World Cup qualifying appearances as England won all eight matches in Group K, finishing as both their leading scorer and primary attacking threat.
The underlying numbers strengthen the case further. Kane registered 31 shots and 16 shots on target across those eight qualifiers, averaging 3.9 shots and two shots on target per game.
He recorded at least four shots in five of his eight appearances, including eight against Latvia, five against Latvia and Andorra, and four against both Albania matches. His 16 shots on target produced eight goals, while he also converted his only penalty of the campaign.
With Bukayo Saka, Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze and Declan Rice all absent, even more responsibility falls on Kane's shoulders. New Zealand arrive having conceded four goals to Haiti and have consistently struggled when stepping up in opposition quality. As England's focal point, penalty taker and highest volume shooter, Kane looks the player most likely to turn England's dominance into goals.
Predicted line ups
England 4-2-3-1: Pickford, Konsa, Stones, Guehi, O'Reilly, Mainoo, Henderson, Rashford, Bellingham, Gordon, Kane.
New Zealand 4-2-3-1: Old, Surman, Waititi, Waine, Sail, Garbett, Bell, Cacace, De Vries, Thomas, Wood.
Anything else catch the eye?
New Zealand secured qualification through the Oceania route, recording victories over Tahiti, Vanuatu, Samoa, Fiji and New Caledonia.
While effective enough to reach the tournament, those results came against opposition operating at a significantly lower level than England. Recent friendlies against stronger nations have exposed the gap, with defeats against Ecuador, Colombia, Finland, Australia and most recently Haiti highlighting the challenges they face when confronted by higher quality attacks.
Injuries further weaken their options. Ryan Thomas misses out with a hamstring problem, while Joe Bell remains a doubt due to a calf issue. England meanwhile arrive with the strongest defensive numbers of any European qualifier.
They conceded chances worth just 2.1 xG across eight matches and did not allow a single goal, while their 20.7 xG created and 33 big chances ranked among the strongest attacking returns on the continent. Tuchel's priority will be a professional performance rather than an all out attacking display.
With the World Cup opener against Croatia approaching, game management and defensive control are likely to be just as important as the result itself. England should have too much quality throughout the pitch and England to win and under 3.5 goals appeals as the angle that best matches how this contest is likely to develop
GambleAware