Apologies in advance for no Lucky 15 thread being posted on Sunday.
To cover Sunday's thread, not going live, we’ve opted to have one for Monday's racing. Fingers crossed, we can find some winners to kick-start the week.
Tommie Beau 2/1 – Cartmel 3.58
Tommie Beau is a bit of a Cartmel specialist, and despite carrying top weight against some decent rivals, I think he will win again at one of his favourite courses.
His form of late has been a tad inconsistent, but he does arrive here on the back of a victory at Fakenham three weeks ago, and if he can back that up with a handy apprentice on board in Benjamin Macey, then he has a good chance of adding another win to his CV.
Sir Tivo 9/4 – Cartmel 4.36
Another small runner field affair, but I liked the look of Gary Hanmers Sir Tivo, who, although a veteran at the age of 12, has shown fire still fires in the old belly.
Hamner has gone and booked Sean Bowen for the ride, which is an obvious plus when it comes to backing this selection. Anytime I’ve watched Sean recently, he’s been riding a lot of his horses cold from the rear. I’ll be surprised if he opts for this tactic on Sir Tivo as he tends to be ridden prominently from the front. If Sean can get him into a nice groove, he could be tough to peg back under the strong Sean Bowen drive.
The favourite Coup De Coeur arrives in good form and has finished in second spot the last twice. He doesn’t look bulletproof, and at 11/10, I thought he was a tad on the short side.
Sea Canary 6/5 – Windsor 3.18
Those with experience hardly set a strong standard. With that said, I think this can go to the already danced newcomer Sea Canary from the powerful William Haggas yard.
Haggas is currently operating a decent strike rate (21% in the last 14 days), and his filly by Sea The Stars could be an above-average sort if ready to roll on debut. She’s in receipt of some weight from a few rivals, and stable jockey Tom Marquand is doing the steering.
Antipodes 15/8 – Windsor 5.00
My last selection comes in the shape of the Roger Varian trainer Antipodes, who looks interesting on handicap debut in the finale at Windsor tomorrow evening.
My selection will be ridden by the inform Ray Dawson, who at the moment is riding the best I’ve seen him ride in a long time. Roger Varian himself also has his string in decent order ( operating at a healthy 21% SR in the last 14 days )
My selection was last seen winning a Class 2 maiden at this very same venue last year. My slight worry is that he hasn’t been seen since August 25, so we have to take race fitness on trust. Given how the Varian stable is operating at present, there’s every reason to believe that a big run is on the cards.
Furthermore, the form of his last victory is not bad either, and he arguably brings some of the better form to the race on what looks a workable mark on handicap debut.
GambleAware