We welcome back James, a regular contributor over at our friends WeLoveBetting, who has been a valuable member of the team there for a number of years.
He shares his best betting tips from the lower leagues in Spain and Germany.
Dynamo Dresden v SpVgg Bayreuth Saturday, 1pm
Whilst the vast majority of the major footballing leagues takes a step back for the international break, there is still plenty of action across this upcoming weekend as some of the lower divisions get their chance in the spotlight. That is the case in this particular instance as Dynamo Dresden look to maintain their fine run of form over struggling SpVgg Bayreuth.
Following relegation out of 2. Bundesliga last season, it is very much a case of Dresden looking to bounce back at the first possible opportunity. They won this league as recently as 2020/21, but they have a ten-point gap to overcome to leaders Elversberg heading into the last ten matches of the campaign if they are to repeat that feat. Going on an 11-match unbeaten run since returning from the Christmas break isn’t a bad way of going about it, of which includes current four-game winning streak.
SpVgg Bayreuth, otherwise known as Die Altstädter to locals, may have won Regionalliga Bayern last season to earn their spot in the league. Still, it has proved to be a tricky adjustment playing at a higher level. With the exception of six match weeks, they’ve been in the relegation zone all season, but it is congested at the bottom. A win on Saturday could take them from 18th to potentially 15th, but a run of four straight losses means Dresden is probably the last place they’d want to be going at this point.
Dresden average a league high of around 23,000 spectators per home match, and with them going so well another raucous atmosphere will welcome their out of sorts visitors. Scoring goals has been no issue for them this season as only twice have they failed to net in a league match. Although their matches has quite a high both teams to score number, they still possess the strongest
Expected Goals Against (xGA) number in 3. Liga. Furthermore, Bayreuth are ranked the exact opposite, meaning no team concedes as many big chances per game on average.
With that being the case, I’m willing to chance Dynamo Dresden To Win To Nil here at 5/4 with BoyleSports. Considering they are priced 3/10 to win the game outright, it makes sense to boost our odds in such a manner. Based on form and the overall data it would be a shock if anything else barring a home win occurred. Also, with the visitors being the second-lowest scorers in the league, you’d suspect they won’t be too adventurous.
Racing Santander v Levante Saturday 3.15pm
Those in LaLiga take a well-earned break this weekend, so it is an opportunity for teams and players across LaLiga 2 to showcase their talents to a wider national audience. There are plenty of intriguing fixtures taking place as the league enters the final 11 matches of the campaign, but Racing Santander v Levante is one which caught my attention across the Saturday card.
It wasn’t that long ago that Racing sat fairly well adrift at the bottom of the standings but much improved form has seen them propel outside the drop zone, of which they hold a five-point cushion over heading into this encounter. José Alberto’s side headed into the Christmas break losing seven of eight games in all competitions, however it is only two defeats in 11 after their Xmas rest.
Only Lugo and UD Ibiza have claimed fewer home points than Racing, so that is one obvious area of improvement they require if they are to comfortably avoid the drop. To their credit, they’re unbeaten in their previous five in front of their own supporters, but only one of those was versus a current top-half team, so welcoming Levante, currently inside the play-offs, presents a stiff challenge for them.
That being said, Levante came out 1-0 losers in the earlier season head-to-head meeting, and with them only winning once in five heading into Saturday, it presents a much closer encounter that the bare league table figures of 17th against 4th may suggest. Within that five match run for Levante, they’ve failed to score in four of those, which is the biggest concern. They therefore enter this game feeling a little limited in front of goal, and could this therefore could be a slow burner.
Levante actually possesses the strongest first-half record in the league, but this is a league largely dominated by half-time draws. 59% of their league clashes are still level at the break, whilst Racing are one of just two in the division yet to be losing at home after 45 minutes. 62.5% of Levante away matches are level at the interval, too. Plenty is pointing towards this being a close match to begin with, even more so with Levante struggling for goals and Racing perhaps slightly wary of being too expressive too soon against one of the LaLiga 2 top dogs.
A price of 29/20 is available with Sporting Index for this contest to be 0-0 at half-time. It is better to take a chance on this specifically as the Half Time Draw market is odds-on and just appears on the slim side. Racing have conceded only one home goal all season inside the opening 30 minutes, so it’d be a little against the grain for them to really go for it from the off. 0-0 has also been the half time score in four of Levante’s last seven games, with three of the four happening in away fixtures.
European Tips
- Dynamo Dresden v SpVgg Bayreuth – Dynamo Dresden Win To Nil (5/4 BoyleSports)
- Racing Santander v Levante – Half Time 0-0 (29/20 Sporting Index)
