Wrexham vs Wimbledon
I’m going to back Wrexham to score 1.5+ goals at a very attractive 4/5. The hosts have scored two or more goals in all 13 home games this term with an average of 3.15 goals. Their home form is so strong with 32 of their 49 points collected at home. It’s no surprise that they have the best home record in the division and no side in any of the top 4 divisions have scored as many at home this season. The Racecourse ground has only seen one defeat this season in the opening game of the season and despite Wimbledon being a decent outfit the hosts should break them down.
Wimbledon on the road have returned W5-D6-L2, conceding just 10 goals with 7 clean sheets from 13 games. Manager Johnnie Jackson will set them up to defend and catch teams on the break but they are missing their best player in Al Hamadi who is at the Asia Cup and Omar Bugiel. Both are key to how they play and Wimbledon should come unstuck here. It’s just 1 away clean sheet in their last five games and over their last 4 league games they have conceded 1.55 xGA.
- Wrexham to score 1.5+ goals 4/5 with William Hill
Blackpool vs Exeter
The hosts are W9-D2-L3 at home this season and record that sees them have the best home record in the division. Defeats have come against Derby, Northampton & Peterborough all who are fighting for promotion to the Championship. They are very inconsistent with just three wins over their last seven games but their home form is strong and seem to find playing at Bloomfield Road easier.
Exeter have won just four of their last 20 league games, losing 12 and conceding an average of 1.75 goals per fixture. On the road it’s seven defeats from their last eight, failing to score in five of the eight. Over their last 8 games they have conceded 1.57 xGA and one of the highest shots in box across these games.
In the last eight away games, no side has won fewer points or conceded more goals with just three sides scoring more goals.
All of Blackpools nine home victories have come with at least two goals in the game and with the visitors conceding a massive 3.13 goals across their last eight away games backing Blackpool to win & over 1.5 goals seems sensible.
- Blackpool win & over 1.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365
Ipswich vs Sunderland
The odds on Ipswich look generous to me. This is a side that has lost just three games all season. The same number as Leicester and fewer than Leeds & Southampton. Leicester have won 33 points at home, with Leeds collecting 31. Ipswich have won 30.
The odds are a reflection of their recent form which is W0-D4-L1 but this run includes a 2-2 against local rivals Norwich and 1-1 draw with Leicester. Over the last few games they have missed key striker Hirst, who is still out but Leif Davies returns and no player has more assist in the Championship than him this term. Wes Burns and Harry Clarke are also now available whilst new signings Lewis Travis and Jeremy Sarmiento should add quality.
Sunderland have only won 16 points from their 13 away games with seven of these coming against the bottom three sides. They have only scored once on the road against top half sides and the manner of the Newcastle defeat will have knocked their confidence.
It’s just one win from their last eight aways days for Sunderland, scoring just four and I can see Ipswich returning to winning ways at Portman Road where they have won 17 of their last 21 games scoring two or more in 19.
- Ipswich win at 11/10 with majority of bookies