Belgium v Iran
Belgium

Belgium vs Iran

, KO: 20:00 , SoFi Stadium
Iran

Belgium’s underwhelming performance in the opening round left the door open for the rest of the group, as all four teams now have one point each with two matches remaining. 

Belgium had a tough match against Egypt, who proved to be much tougher than most people expected. Or perhaps the Red Devils simply didn’t show their best side and will be more organized in their second match. We’ll find out soon enough.

Belgium’s starting lineup wasn’t creative or explosive enough, with their best moments coming after the first few substitutions and the entry of Romelu Lukaku. As soon as he stepped onto the field, Belgium mounted an attack down the right wing, which led to an unfortunate own goal by Mohamed Hany, who was trying to beat Lukaku to the ball.

Several more good chances followed, and only a strong performance by Oufa Shobeir in goal for Egypt saved them from losing. But despite his three key saves in the second half, Belgium simply weren’t at the level needed to win the match.

The match between Iran and New Zealand, meanwhile, was one of the most interesting and fairest in terms of play since the start of the World Cup, and the teams were surprisingly evenly matched on the field.

Expectations were that Team Melli would handle the All Whites, but Chris Wood and Elijah Just played a phenomenal game, earning New Zealand a point. 

Now all teams in Group G have one point each, making the group one of the most competitive so far.

How the bookies view it: The Red Devils will not make the same mistakes

Belgium will be the heavy favourite against any of the teams in Group G, but we’ve already seen that this doesn’t guarantee a win. Against Iran, they once again have a significant advantage in the odds, and you can back them at 2/5. The draw is priced at 15/4, and Iran at 13/2.

Recent head-to-head: Iran typically struggle against European teams

Belgium and Iran have never faced each other before, so this match will mark the beginning of a new rivalry. However, we do have some useful historical statistics, such as the fact that Iran have only one win in 10 matches against European opponents at World Cups (D2, L7).

Players to watch: Lukaku remains an imminent threat  

Coach Rudi Garcia will have to make some changes, or he risks Belgium underperforming again. It remains to be seen whether Romelu Lukaku is ready to start or if De Ketelaere will remain in the starting lineup, but what we saw was a better Belgium after Lukaku appeared. 

The problem is that Lukaku was out with injuries for almost the entire season, and he played a total of 69 minutes for Napoli during the 2025/26 campaign. He seems to be doing better now, considering he scored against Croatia and assisted against Tunisia in the pre-World Cup friendlies.  

If he’s not among the starters, we’d back Jeremy Doku with a shot on target or even a goal. The Man City winger was among Belgium’s top scorers in the qualifications, with five goals and two assists in eight appearances.

Probable line-ups 

Belgium: Courtois, De Cuyper, Mechele, Ngoy, Meunier, Onana, Tielemans, Doku, De Bruyne, Trossard, De Ketelaere

Iran: Beiranvand, Mohammadi, Nemati, Khalilzadeh, Rezaeian, Mohebi, Ghoddos, Ezatolahi, Ghayedi, Moghanlou, Taremi

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Both teams to score

The market looks too bullish on Belgium here. A World Football Elo rating of 1879 compared to Iran's 1756 translates to only a 50.4% win probability on a neutral venue, yet Belgium are being priced as considerably stronger than those numbers suggest.

Iran showed plenty of quality in their opening match, drawing 2-2 with New Zealand while generating 1.49 xG. That performance was consistent with their broader attacking profile, with a blended xGF of 1.65 per game across their final World Cup qualifiers and tournament opener.

Belgium also found the net in their first outing but looked vulnerable defensively, drawing 1-1 with Egypt despite generating 1.35 xG themselves. Both teams have scored and conceded in the tournament so far, suggesting opportunities should exist at both ends.

Both teams to score stands out as the strongest angle. Our numbers make it a 54.7% probability compared to a market-implied 45.6%. With both nations needing a victory to strengthen their position in Group G, an open contest with chances for both attacks looks the most likely outcome.

Anything else catch the eye?

Iran are in a much more difficult situation than most teams, entirely for reasons unrelated to their on-field performance. The national team is not allowed to remain in the United States after its matches and must fly back to its base in Mexico immediately after each game.

The reduced rest time will certainly have an impact, but Amir Ghalenoei’s team demonstrated their mental toughness after falling behind twice against New Zealand. In the months leading up to the World Cup, they also showed significant improvement on offense, which is why we expect Belgium to have some defensive struggles against Team Melli.

We expect to see a high-scoring match with both teams finding the net. Alternatively, we plan to back Alireza Beiranvand to make some saves—he made six against New Zealand. On paper, Belgium have significantly more dangerous forwards, and we can expect plenty of shots towards Beiranvand’s goal.

When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.

Belgium vs Iran Betting Tips & Predictions
Over 2.5 goals
9/10
Bet365
Jeremy Doku 1+ shots on target
11/20
Bet365
Alireza Beiranvand 4+ goalkeeper saves
13/20
Bet365
Further Reading
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