Netherlands v Sweden
Netherlands

Netherlands vs Sweden

, KO: 18:00 , NRG Stadium
Sweden

NRG Stadium in Houston will host the Netherlands' Group F World Cup clash with Sweden on Saturday evening.

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The Netherlands were widely tipped to top the section, but they head into their second outing sitting third in the standings after being held to an entertaining 2-2 draw by Japan last Sunday night.

Ronald Koeman's side twice took the lead, only to be pegged back on each occasion, leaving them with work to do in their remaining group fixtures.

Nevertheless, there is little reason for alarm in the Dutch camp, with the Oranje still in control of their own destiny heading into their remaining two assignments.

Sweden, meanwhile, set the early pace in Group F courtesy of a dominant 5-1 victory over Tunisia in their opening fixture.

Graham Potter's side therefore arrive in Houston brimming with confidence, knowing that avoiding defeat would leave them on the verge of booking their place in the round of 32.

How the bookies view it: Netherlands to land first win

Despite last week's 2-2 draw with Japan, the Netherlands are firm 8/11 favourites with bet365.

Sweden are 15/4 outsiders on bet365, while a share of the spoils is an unfancied 14/5.

Head to head: History book dormant

The Netherlands and Sweden have met eight times previously on the international stage, with their most recent encounter coming in a 2018 World Cup qualifier almost a decade ago.

The Dutch hold the historical edge in this fixture and were 2-0 winners when the sides last crossed paths. The same scoreline on Saturday can be backed at 15/2 with bet365.

Players to watch: Summerville to strike?

After scoring a brilliant goal against Japan last week, Crysencio Summerville looks good value to hit the target at least one during this clash at 8/11 with bet365.

Sweden, meanwhile, will look to their star striking duo of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres for inspiration on Saturday evening. Both players were on the scoresheet against Tunisia and they are each priced at 21/10 to score anytime with bet365.

Predicted line-ups

The Netherlands have reported no injury concerns ahead of this clash. Ronald Koeman is expected to make one or two changes, with Memphis Depay pushing for a recall to the starting XI.

Sweden also have few fitness worries, although Gabriel Gudmundsson was forced off with cramp against Tunisia last time out. Even so, the Swede should be fit enough to retain his place in the starting lineup.

Netherlands: Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Dijk, Van Hecke, Van de Ven; De Jong, Reijnders, Gravenberch; Summerville, Depay, Gakpo

Sweden: Nordfeldt; Lagerbielke, Hien, Lindelof; Bernhardsson, Nygren, Karlstrom, Ayari, Gudmundsson; Isak, Gyokeres

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Netherlands to win

Neither side arrives here with a result that fully reflected their underlying performance. Ronald Koeman's Netherlands drew 2-2 with Japan despite generating only 0.78 xG, with both goals coming from set-piece situations and moments of individual quality rather than sustained attacking pressure.

Sweden beat Tunisia 5-1 but the score line exaggerated their dominance. They generated just 1.33 xG, with Viktor Gyokeres and Alexander Isak converting chances at an unsustainably high rate.

The broader data points towards a low-scoring contest. Netherlands hold blended figures of 1.40 xG for and 0.78 xG against, while Sweden sit at 1.29 xG for and 0.92 xG against. The combined expected total of 2.23 goals gives only a 38.6% probability of over 2.5 goals, one of the lowest projections of the round.

Cody Gakpo and Tijjani Reijnders will attempt to control possession, while Sweden are likely to remain compact and attack on transitions. The Netherlands look the more complete side and should edge a tight encounter.

Anything else catch the eye?

Jan Paul van Hecke was fouled once against Japan last weekend, and given his knack for drawing free kicks, a repeat here appeals at 11/10 on bet365.

The Netherlands could also be worth backing to pick up two or more cards at 4/5 with bet365.

It was the Dutch who picked up all three bookings against Japan, and with the stakes now rising, two or more bookings looks attractive at the odds on offer.

Netherlands vs Sweden Betting Tips & Predictions
Crysencio Summerville 1+ Shot on Target
8/11
Bet365
Jan Paul van Hecke To Be Fouled 1+ Time
11/10
Bet365
Over 1.5 Netherlands Cards
4/5
Bet365
Further Reading
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