Turkey and Paraguay are set to face off in a crucial Group D matchup after both teams suffered heavy losses in their opening matches. Whoever loses this match will be left with a minimal chance of advancing.
The difference between the two losses we saw last week is that Paraguay were expected to struggle against the USA, while Turkey were a heavy favourite in their match against Australia, but failed to even score a goal.
However, the Crescent-Stars dominated throughout the match and recorded 30 shots, eight of which were on target. This means they need to be more clinical in the final third to get some results.
Turkey were in great form immediately before the World Cup, with seven wins in eight matches, so we expect this second match to play out a little differently.
Paraguay qualified for the finals entirely on the strength of their solid defense, which, however, we didn’t see against the USA. Combined with their usual lack of sharpness on offense, they didn’t stand a chance against the World Cup co-hosts.
Turkey’s roster is just as capable as that of the USA, so unless Paraguay make some immediate changes to their game, it’s quite likely they’ll face a similar fate.
How the bookies view it: The Crescent-Stars have the advantage once again
There are no surprises in the odds, although we expected Turkey to have an even greater advantage than they are currently given.
You can back Turkey at 1/1, while Paraguay are priced at 3/1. Alternatively, the draw is priced at 9/4.
Recent head-to-head: 31 years from their last encounter
This will be the first official match between Paraguay and Turkey. The two nations have met once before in a friendly match on nearly the same date, 31 years ago, in 1995. That match ended in a 0-0 draw.
Statistically and historically, Paraguay have reason to be concerned, as their record against European national teams is not very positive. They have played European nations 19 times in World Cups so far, with only four wins (D6, L9).
Players to watch: Guler may find the net this time
The Turkish squad features some very big names who can make a difference at any moment. Based on what we saw in their first match, we think it makes sense to keep an eye on the betting markets for Arda Guler.
The 21-year-old Real Madrid star was the best player on the pitch against Australia, but unfortunately, he missed too many chances. He took a total of eight shots towards Beach’s goal, three of which were on target.
Bet365 is offering 1/2 for Guler to have 3+ shots against Paraguay, as well as 9/20 for 1+ shots on target. In our opinion, it makes sense to combine these two selections for a more favourable payout.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
Probable line-ups
Turkey: Cakir, Kadioglu, Bardakci, Demiral, Celik, Calhanoglu, Yuksek, Yilmaz, Kokcu, Guler, Akturkoglu
Paraguay: Gill, Maidana, Alderete, G. Gomez, Caceres, Cubas, Bobadilla, D. Gomez, Almiron, Enciso, Sanabria
Anything else catch the eye?
We’re definitely expecting a much more convincing performance from Turkey, and we plan to take advantage of the high odds the bookmakers are offering on their victory. Paraguay simply didn’t show anything impressive against the USA, although they did at least score a goal.
Still, we expect them to score in this match as well, and overall, we anticipate a high-scoring fixture. This match is crucial for both teams, as the loser will likely be eliminated from the World Cup when the group stage ends.
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