Tuesday brings some fantastic matches on the ATP Tour, with the Asian swing continuing its unique scheduling. Over in Beijing, the China Open semi-finals play out, with a blockbuster between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev taking place. In Tokyo, the Japan Open sees two Frenchman clash in the final. We’ve got hot tennis tips for both events, so read on to find out where the value is.
Best tennis tips and predictions today
We’re picking Alcaraz to get past Medvedev, but only just, as the Russian is overdue a big performance. In the Fils vs Humbert final, there’s a stat that we think the match will pivot on, which swings the matchup in Humbert’s favour.
Alcaraz to beat Medvedev 2-1 @ 5/2
The core of this prediction is Medvedev’s track record of consistently doing the unexpected. Think Australian Open final vs Jannik Sinner in January this year – Medvedev came out of nowhere for two sets and blew Sinner away, before running out of steam.
We’re picking a similar clash here in the China Open semi-finals. Medvedev hasn’t beaten Alcaraz in the last year, with the Spaniard defeating him in their last three meetings – including just a few months ago at Wimbledon.
It’s also been one of the poorer seasons in recent memory for Medvedev, despite the fact he’s still the world No. 5. The Russian is yet to win a title in 2024, and has been taking uncharacteristic losses on hard courts the past few months, such as Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Canada or Jiri Lehecka in Cincinnati.
Medvedev has been business as usual so far in China, however. The third seed has seen off Gael Monfils, Adrian Mannarino and Flavio Cobolli without dropping any more than eight games in each match.
Though Alcaraz is in equally sharp form, the 21-year-old has looked a little fragile in recent months. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he started slow against Medvedev and dropped a set.
Humbert to beat Fils @ 1/2
As touched on above, there’s one stat that we say dictates how the Japan Open final will go.
Ugo Humbert is an incredible 6-0 in ATP Tour-level finals. When it comes to big matches, this guy is close to unbeatable. Of those six finals, five have been in straight sets as well, with the last three being for the loss of just seven games or less.
Arthur Fils is a strong player, and just beat Alexander Zverev in a final a few months ago. However, we simply can’t look past Humbert’s record, and have to give this one to him. Back the 26-year-old to win outright for a conservative wager, or in straight sets for a juicier return of 5/4.
Bren is our resident Kiwi, and has been playing or watching sports down under in New Zealand for the better part of three decades. With 12+ years experience as a professional writer, Bren loves to dive deep into all things sport to bring the best betting analysis and predictions here at Mr Fixits Tips.
