IT was quite a night for the home nations as the World Cup qualifying groups drew to a close.
England skelped a hapless, 10-man, San Marino by ten goals to nil, Scotland beat one of the form teams in Europe, Denmark, 2-0 at an electric Hampden Park and Northern Ireland held European Champions, Italy, to a creditable 0-0 in Belfast.
Now it's over to Wales to pick up the baton and get a result that will see them seeded in the play-offs and get to play the one-off semi-final match a home.
The only problem is that the World's No.1 ranked team, Belgium, stand in their way. The Welsh need a point to finish second in Group E but they have the safety net of a play-off berth via the their UEFA Nations League performance to fall back on. That route would leave them unseeded however and the prospect of a trip to Italy, Portugal or even Hampden(!) in the play-off semi-final.
The good news is that Belgium have already qualified comfortably and Roberto Martinez will use the match to hand some game-time to fringe players and future prospects. Their absentee list would walk in to most interational starting XIs around Europe; Courtois, Hazard, Denayer, Mignolet, Praet, Lukaku, Alderweireld and Tielemans.
Ordinarily Belgium at 13/10 would be a must-bet but the team news will be crucial before betting on this one.
One of three teams can still claim top spot in Group G. Netherland host Norway in Rotterdam where a draw would be good enough for the hosts. Defeat could hand top spot to Norway or open the door for Turkey who travel to Montenegro.
Norway will still be without Haaland and failed to find the net against Latvia last time out to all but blow their chances, so no surprise to see the Dutch as short as 2/5 to win. They've put an early 4-2 defeat to Turkey behind them and have scored 31 in nine so far, although 13 of those have been against Gibraltar.
Turkey drew 2-2 with Montenegro when the visitor stuck in the 98th minute in Istanbul but there can be no margin for error tonight. Only a win will be good enough to see the Turks qualify automatically, failing that it will be good enough for them to secure second spot.
Super Double
Netherlands & Turkey to win 6/5 (Bet365)
Upcoming Matches & Tips
- Tue 19:45 Finland v France
- Tue 19:45 Wales v Belgium
- Tue 19:45 Netherlands v Norway
- Tue 19:45 Montenegro v Turkey
- Tue 19:45 Czech Republic v Estonia
- Tue 19:45 Bosnia & Herzegovina v Ukraine
- Tue 23:30 Argentina v Brazil
Today's Racing Tips
Tuesday is a busy day for Rizzel as he has picked out five fancies from Fakenham and Ayr.
As always, let us know your tips and predictions for today in the comments section below and good luck with all your bets!
In December 2020 we sadly 
Over 1.5tgs treble @ 13/10 (Whill boost) nap
Belarus u21
Norway u21
Northern Ireland u21
Norway u21 over 2.5tgs @ 11/8 (Whill) nb
Smaller stake
Over 2.5mgs treble @ 2.3/1 (Whill)
Liechtenstein u21 vs Belarus u21
Azerbaijan u21 vs Norway u21
Northern Ireland u21 vs Malta u21
It was Austria last week I fancied taking a few off Azerbaijan and this week it’s Norway. Watched the game and it’s fair to say Azerbaijan are pretty dire, and kicked more shins than made passes. Norway took 3 off of Austria back in September, and have scored 2+ in their last 5 games, and 3+ in 4 of those. They have only failed to score a goal in two games against the Netherlands in the last 4 years. With the chance to go level on points (for a few hours at least) with top of the group Croatia, I can see Norway notching a few goals here at a generous price.
Liechtenstein are awful, and Belarus took 6 off them at home a month ago. A bit wary after Iceland gave up at half time last week, but I can see them at least netting 2 or 3 against one of the worst u21 sides in Europe.
Northern Ireland host Malta with what I can only imagine being revenge on their minds after an embarrassing 4-1 defeat in the away tie in September, with the irony being they completely dominated the game. They have won both their home games since then against Slovakia and Lithuania, scoring 5 in the process, while malta have lost all 4 games, conceding 17 goals. Can see NI scoring at least 2 here.
Apologies for the lengthy write up, it’s the boredom of a nightshift kicking in and the only chance I have time to put reasoning behind it 😅
Good luck all 🤞🤞
Really good reasoning, cheers. Deffo gonna be on this one.
Took Norway -1 last night at EVS. Could only get -3 for Belarus. Reassuring reading your reasoning.
Bet 2
San Francisco +7.5 handicap
Total match points UNDER 58.5
(Bet365 betbuilder)
2 units pays 4 units ✅
Remaining Bank +104.34 units
That was a vey astute pick, Nathan.
Top man! 😉
Cheers, Chris 👍
Last two NFL plays have been very easy winners, hopefully will continue!
Update for the flat-stakes plan:
San Francisco +7.5 and total under 58.5, odds 2
Won
Remaining bank: 113.44
Bet 1
Vietnam vs Saudi Arabia
Over 2.5 match goals
1 unit pays 2.1 units
SBK
Remaining Bank +103.34
Update for the flat-stakes plan:
Vietnam vs Saudi Arabia, over 2.5 match goals, odds 2.1, stake 6 units
Remaining bank: 107.44
Good luck!
One bet every day. This is my favorite. Thank you
F.A Cup
Cambridge United v Northampton
Draw at 5/2
game decided on pens at 11/2
Exeter v Bradford
Draw at 13/5
game decided on pens 11/2
Plymouth v Sheff Weds
Draw at 9/4
game decided on pens at 11/2
Fa Cup replays for me tonight and i have looked at all the games and these three could be tight affairs again.
Best of luck
MY YESTERDAY GAME
Just 2 games for me today
Israel vs Faroe Island
Austria vs Moldova
Over 2.5 Goals Double @2+ (1XBET
WINNER
U21s
Azerbaijan
Lithuania
Over 2.5mgs double 8/5
Good luck
Bet 2
China vs Australia
Aus -1 Asian handicap
2 units pays 4.1 units
Bet 365
Remaining Bank +101.34
Bet 2
China vs Australia
Aus -1 Asian handicap
2 units pays 4.1 units
Bet 365
Remaining Bank +101.34
My comment above is not what I meant to post, no idea what happened.
Update for the flat-stakes plan:
China vs Australia, Aus -1 AH, odds 2.05, stake 6 units
Remaining bank: 101.44
Hiya mate,
If you’re flat skating, it’ll be 1 unit on each bet.
In reality, my 1 unit could be £100 and your 6 units could be £6
If you want it to be representative and comparable, you would need to adjust to 1 unit on each bet :)
Don’t forget, everyone’s 1 unit differs, so putting down 6 units on each bet is hypothetical and not a true reflection of outcome
In other words, your independent variable would be the 1 unit stakes.
Don’t know if the bookies are feeling a bit bruised today as most haven’t got any prices up for the Germany San Marino u21 match. Ladbrokes haven’t got the game listed and most of the others only the match price. Pathetic. Bet 365 is the only one I can see with handicap prices.
U21 EURO QUALIFIERS
Azerbaijan U21 v Norway U21 16.00
Norway U21 3+ Goals.. Evs NAP
☀️ ☀️ ☀️ ☀️ ☀️
Norway U21 4+ Goals.. 9/4 NB
☀️ ☀️ ☀️
SKYBET…. Good Luck…. 🤞
Montenegro vs Turkey
Tip: Over 8.5 Corners
Bosnia Herzegovina vs Ukraine
Tip: Over 8.5 Corners
Total: 2+ (1XBET) (NAP)
EUROPE: World Cup – Qualification
20:45
Czech Republic vs Estonia
Tip: Over 2.5 Corners
BRAZIL: Serie A
20:00
Athletico-PR vs Atletico-MG
Tip: Atletico MG to WIN
GERMANY: Regionalliga Bayern
19:30
Eltersdorf vs Heimstetten
Tip: Over 2.5 Goals
Total: 3+ (1XBET) NB
Total All: 9+
Goodluck on all your bets.
Hi Nathan,
I’m curious to compare the stake plans, so we start with the same bank and we place the same bets (because I’m following you on paper).
The only reason why I chose to place 6 units on each bet is this (I wrote that yesterday):
“Starting with the same bank and using a stake of 6 units. In your system you lose 31 units after 5 wrong bets and with the flat stakes I lose 30 units with 5 wrong bets, so it’s a comparable amount of risk.”
The novelty in your system is hitting the brakes if 5 bets lose. I’ve adjusted the stake size in the flat-stake plan accordingly (that’s the only variable I can adjust). I have idea if it’s a good staking plan or not, I’m just curious.
And yes, I’ve read a lot of recommendations to use 1% of your bank in a flat-stake system and it makes sense. But I’ll keep staking 6 units.
Afternoon gents,
Some crackers yesterday and the bookies deserved a bit of a bashing…still yet to see one on a bike!
South American WC Qualifiers are drawing me to higher altitude tonight and the penalty and cards angle may pay dividends again – I’ll add goals into a 2nd longshot for good measure as the H2H has a rich history:
BOLIVIA VS. URUGUAY (8.00pm)
PENALTY AWARDED
(2/1, bet365) NAP ⭐⭐⭐
RED CARD AWARDED
(10/3, williamhill) NB ⭐
RED CARD SHOWN &PENALTY AWARDED
(9/1, williamhill) LONGSHOT I ⭐
RED CARD AWARDED
OVER 3.5 MATCH GOALS
(12/1, bet365) LONGSHOT II ⭐
Best of luck!
Really nice tipping 🔥
Cheers!
Great tipping Hull, would have been the full house by now, if not for the
missed penalty, still 10 min to go, time yet!!
Well in hull absolutely smashed it there lad
Sensational 💪🏼
Cheers lads 👍
Olanda – Norveagia btts odds 2.20
Muntenegru – Turcia over 0,5 match goals, over 6,5 corners, over 1,5 yellow cards odds 1.45
Cehia – Estonia over 8,5 corners. I expect many corners here.
Even over 10,5 corners
Gibraltar – Letonia x2& 0-4 match goals interval
Muntenegru – Turcia over 0,5 match goals, over 6,5 corners, over 1,5 yellow cards odds 1.45
Cehia – Estonia over 8,5 corners. I expect many corners here.
I’m liking the look of that. Cheers Florescum.
Hi Guys,
Going for cards in the 2 group G games involving the top 4 in group.
All to play for for the top 3, Netherlands, Norway and Turkey, all still
in with a chance of qualification. With that in mind going for:-
20+ booking points each team in the Netherlands vs Norway and the
Montenegro vs Turkey games @ 2/1 with Skybet – 10 points staked
Top plays 3rd in the Netherlands and Norway need a result to give them
any chance of qualification, which could mean the Netherland’s miss out.
Turkey also need something from their game to guarantee a play-off place
Montenegro drew with Netherland’s last round coming back from a 2-0
deficit, don’t think Turkey will have it easy tonight.
GOOD LUCK WITH ALL BETS TONIGHT!!!
LOST – no cards for Turkey does this one!!
Bet 2
China vs Australia
Aus -1 Asian handicap
2 units pays 4.1 units
Bet 365
Remaining Bank +101.34
Very poor penalty decision meant a loss rather than refund!
Bet 3
Bosnia vs Ukraine
Both teams to score, Ukraine double chance
(Bet365 betbuilder) 2.05
4 units pays 8.2 units
Remaining Bank +97.34 units
Update for the flat-stakes plan:
China vs Australia, Aus -1 AH, odds 2.05, stake 6 units
Remaining bank: 101.44
Loss
Bet 9:
Bosnia vs Ukraine BTTS, Ukraine double chance, odds 2.05, stake 6 units
Remaining bank: 95.44
Non league action tonight
Hednesford
Peterborough sports
Over 2.5mgs 6/5
All teams involved like to score & concede goals
Good luck
Bristol Rovers v Oxford Utd.
Oxford win, 1.91 (Willy Hill)
both teams to score double
nautico v sampaio correa
bucaramanga v tolima
ladbrokes 11/4
NAP WON
U21s
Azerbaijan
Lithuania
Over 2.5mgs double 8/5**LOST** no 3rd in Lithuania despite being 0-2 after 55mins
International treble
Bosnia v Ukraine – Over 4.5 Match Cards
Holland v Norway – Over 9.5 Match Corners
Finland v France – Over 0.5 Finland TGS
7/1
All teams with things still to play for involved.
GL All.
Gibraltar vs Latvia
Latvia over 2.5 TGS 9/4
Gutkowski AGS 13/8
Holland v Norway
Pen taken 2/1 hills
Holland been awarded pen in 4 of last 5 games
Good luck
A note for Nathan:
In your original Martingale post you wrote “0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5 = 0.015625”
I’m running some calculations in LibreOffice (I might post them later today or tomorrow) and it says the result is 0.03125. So it looks like you are twice as likely to hit 5 losses in a row.
Let me know if LibreOffice is wrong.
both teams to score double
cambridge v northampton
exeter v bradford
ladbrokes 9/4
NAP
I am tempting to do another bet tonight
Netherlands vs Norway
Tip: Over 9.5 Corners @ 1.87
Small stakes 163/1 acca, good luck tonight!
Latvia
Match Betting
Gibraltar v Latvia
1/2
Over (+2.5)
Stevenage v MK Dons
20/23
France
Match Betting
Finland v France
4/9
Netherlands
Match Betting
Netherlands v Norway
1/2
Belgium
Match Betting
Wales v Belgium
11/10
Over (+2.5)
Bosnia & Herzegovina v Ukraine
8/13
Over (+2.5)
Czech Republic v Estonia
1/2
Over (+2.5)
Cheltenham v Gillingham
8/11
Over (+2.5)
Exeter v Bradford
17/20
Over (+2.5)
Oldham v Ipswich
4/6
Was anyone else on De Bruyne to score from outside the area,lands after 12 mins at 10/1
🇻🇪🇵🇪 ░W░o░r░l░d░ ░c░u░p░🇵🇪🇻🇪
VENEZUELA V PERU 9PM.
BTTS 11-10 🏆NAP🏆
2 side bets
Over 2.5 match goals 6-4
Btts and over 2.5 match goals 2-1.
All at HILLS
—————————————–
Judging by the match odds bookies expect a narrow Peru win.
I’m not so sure as they don’t travel well and Venezuela’s beat work is at home, in fact all their work is at home, all their 7 points have been gained in Venezuela.
Peru got themselves back into contention for a top 5 spot with a 3-0 win at home to Bolivia, but they are notoriously bad travellers and that result was expected.
They will see today as an opportunity to get back in the mix with 2 games after this to play.
Peru beat Venezuela 1-0 in the Copa America earlier this year but that was on neutral territory.
The last 5 world cup qualifiers in Venezuela between these were
2-2. 3-2. 3-1. 4-1. 3-0.
Venezuela’s last 3 home qualifiers in the last 2 months
Venezuela 2 Ecuador 1
Venezuela 1 Brazil 3
Venezuela 1 Argentina 3
*** These 3 opponents occupy the top 3 places in the standings ***
Ok Venezuela can’t qualify but they are capable of scoring at home even without their main scorer saloman rondon.
Reverse fixture in September was Peru 1 Venezuela 0.
Venezuela had a red card after 30 minutes but shots, corners, possession etc were very close considering this.
Peru have always struck me as a bit flaky and wouldn’t surprise me if they let me down here, hopefully they can manage at least one as it means a lot to them tonight.
Prediction 2-1 or 1-2
🏆🇻🇪🇵🇪🇻🇪🇵🇪🇻🇪🇵🇪🇻🇪🇵🇪🇻🇪🇵🇪🏆
Great tips Elvis, at great prices👍
Cheers rich 🇻🇪🇵🇪
Holland v Norway match would get fitba banned, both teams should be fined for non trying.
I see my friend Morton Thorsby pick up another booking tonight, he was only
priced at 13/8 when I checked before kick off so didn’t post.
Non league action tonight
Hednesford
Peterborough sports
Over 2.5mgs 6/5**LOST** lack of goals in hednosford. Picked wrong non league game as lots of games with plenty goals
Well done all winners
Holland v Norway
Pen taken 2/1 hills
Holland been awarded pen in 4 of last 5 games
Good luck ❌
Well done all winners
Decent night last night with 11/4 and 8/1 winners but better again tonight 😀
South American WC Qualifiers are drawing me to higher altitude tonight and the penalty and cards angle may pay dividends again – I’ll add goals into a 2nd longshot for good measure as the H2H has a rich history:
BOLIVIA VS. URUGUAY (8.00pm)
PENALTY AWARDED
(2/1, bet365) NAP ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
RED CARD AWARDED
(10/3, williamhill) NB ⭐ ✅
RED CARD SHOWN &PENALTY AWARDED
(9/1, williamhill) LONGSHOT I ⭐ ✅
RED CARD AWARDED
OVER 3.5 MATCH GOALS
(12/1, bet365) LONGSHOT II ⭐ 🙈
Just a missed penalty shy on the 12/1 but happy enough with that!
😉👍
Superb hull 👍
Brilliant…Cheers Hull
Great stuff
Fantastic again Hull👍
Gibraltar vs Latvia
Latvia over 2.5 TGS 9/4 ✅
Gutkowski AGS 13/8 ✅
Well done Nate
Exeter v Bradford were the only winner at 13/5 out of my 3 draws.hoped it would of gone to penalties which would of meant some profit but Exeter scored 3 goals in extra time to scupper that.
Well done all winners
🇻🇪🇵🇪 ░W░o░r░l░d░ ░c░u░p░🇵🇪🇻🇪
VENEZUELA V PERU 9PM.
BTTS 11-10 🏆NAP🏆
2 side bets
Over 2.5 match goals 6-4
Btts and over 2.5 match goals 2-1.
All at HILLS
—————————————–
Judging by the match odds bookies expect a narrow Peru win.
I’m not so sure as they don’t travel well and Venezuela’s beat work is at home, in fact all their work is at home, all their 7 points have been gained in Venezuela.
Peru got themselves back into contention for a top 5 spot with a 3-0 win at home to Bolivia, but they are notoriously bad travellers and that result was expected.
They will see today as an opportunity to get back in the mix with 2 games after this to play.
Peru beat Venezuela 1-0 in the Copa America earlier this year but that was on neutral territory.
The last 5 world cup qualifiers in Venezuela between these were
2-2. 3-2. 3-1. 4-1. 3-0.
Venezuela’s last 3 home qualifiers in the last 2 months
Venezuela 2 Ecuador 1
Venezuela 1 Brazil 3
Venezuela 1 Argentina 3
*** These 3 opponents occupy the top 3 places in the standings ***
Ok Venezuela can’t qualify but they are capable of scoring at home even without their main scorer saloman rondon.
Reverse fixture in September was Peru 1 Venezuela 0.
Venezuela had a red card after 30 minutes but shots, corners, possession etc were very close considering this.
Peru have always struck me as a bit flaky and wouldn’t surprise me if they let me down here, hopefully they can manage at least one as it means a lot to them tonight.
Prediction 2-1 or 1-2
🏆🇻🇪🇵🇪🇻🇪🇵🇪🇻🇪🇵🇪🇻🇪🇵🇪🇻🇪🇵🇪🏆
Finished 1-2
11-10. 6-4 and 2-1 winners 🇵🇪🇻🇪
Well done all winners 👍
Great work Elvis
Goal & 4+ corners each half
Colombia v Paraguay – 7/2
Argentina v Brazil – 9/2
Wee interest bet for the next few hrs
ARGENTINA vs BRAZIL (Bet Builder)
A red card in the match
Over 4.5 Cards
Argentina – Match Odds
Over 0.5 Goals – First Half Goals 0.5
4 Folds (x1) @12.34
Over 1.5tgs treble @ 13/10 (Whill boost) nap❌
Belarus u21✅
Norway u21✅
Northern Ireland u21❌
Norway u21 over 2.5tgs @ 11/8 (Whill) nb❌
Over 2.5mgs treble @ 2.3/1 (Whill)❌
Liechtenstein u21 vs Belarus u21✅
Azerbaijan u21 vs Norway u21✅
Northern Ireland u21 vs Malta u21❌
The first half red card didn’t help Ireland, but beaten twice by Malta 🤦♂️ … apologies , was a load of 💩!
Well done winners tonight 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻