An improved Fiorentina side in need of positive results meets the surprise package of the current Serie A campaign, Como, as the teams face off for a place among the final eight in Coppa Italia.
This will be a season to forget for La Viola, who have spent the entirety of the campaign in Serie A’s drop zone, unless their form continues to improve. Fiorentina seem to have put the worst behind them, as they lost only one of their five fixtures since the start of the new year.
The biggest improvement can be seen in their efficiency in the final third, as they have been scoring a lot more than before. This will be La Viola’s first fixture in Coppa Italia, as they were qualified directly to the 1/8 finals, but the same can’t be said about their opponents.
Como had to fight their way into this stage, crushing both fixtures by scoring 3+ goals. Few would bet against the Voltaics, who have been a permanent resident of Serie A’s top six since the beginning of the campaign.
Their form is impressive and certainly a cause for concern, having scored nine unanswered goals in their last two games.
How the bookies view it: Como with a slight edge
If we go back four months to the previous H2H, Fiorentina had a slight advantage in the odds. The case is quite the opposite now, with bookmakers giving the nod to Como, although we can’t exactly call them a favourite based on the odds.
La Viola are currently available at 37/20, while Como are priced at 27/20. Alternatively, you can back a draw at 23/10.
Recent head-to-head: Como went B2B at this venue
Speaking about their recent Serie A meeting again, Como had their way and won 2-1 away at Stadio Artemio Franchi, going back-to-back at this venue in the span of seven months. However, Fiorentina won the reverse fixture last season.
This is where we draw the line for the useful data, as their last meeting before last season was in 2004, when Como were last in the top flight.
Players to watch: Douvikas loves Coppa Italia games
Como’s success this season is more the result of the incredible chemistry in the squad, and less due to specific individuals. A total of 13 different players have scored for the team, which is impressive.
We can’t, however, not mention Anastasios Douvikas, who has netted 11 goals for the team across all competitions. Particularly in Coppa Italia, he scored a brace in the first round and contributed to two goals in the second (G1, A1).
Also, we can highlight Como’s playmaker, Nico Paz, who gave the assist to both goals against Fiorentina four months ago.
Probable line-ups
Fiorentina: De Gea, Kouadio, Pongracic, Ranieri, Fortini, Mandragora, Nicolussi Caviglia, Solomon, Brescianini, Harrison, Piccoli
Como: Butez, Van Der Brempt, Carlos, Ramon, Moreno, Caqueret, Da Cunha, Kuhn, Baturina, Addai, Douvikas
Anything else catch the eye?
Given Como’s exceptional form and Fiorentina’s resurgence, everything points towards an exciting clash with goals on both ends. While the Voltaics kept their sheet clean in B2B games, Coppa Italia games are always different.
Both managers are likely to make major squad changes, and we doubt we will see the best versions of either side. We do, however, believe that Como are the superior team this season and their ambitions are not limited to the top flight.
Betting on them to win in regulation is a huge risk, but advantageously, we have the alternative option to bet on them to qualify at 4/5.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
GambleAware