Nottingham Forest host Ferencvaros in the final round of the Europa League league phase on Thursday, with both sides still driven by positional incentives despite qualification already secured.
Forest arrive in 16th place on 11 points, their play-off spot confirmed but with outside hopes of a top-eight finish. Ferencvaros sit seventh and remain unbeaten, focused on protecting their position and avoiding the play-off round entirely.
Forest’s campaign has been uneven but productive in attack. They have scored 11 goals from an xGF of 14.8, supported by an xGD of 10.1 and an xPTS return of 16.4, the highest in the competition. Home performances have underpinned that profile.
Forest average 15.43 shots per game and 6.57 shots on target, creating 26 big chances across seven matches. Defensive output has been strong, conceding just 4.6 xGA, though recent results have shown volatility, including defeat at Braga on Matchday seven.
Ferencvaros arrive in strong underlying shape. They are unbeaten after seven matches, posting an xPTS of 11.9 and an xGD of 3.6. Their attacking output remains consistent, with 12 goals scored from 19 big chances and a non-penalty xG of 8.27, outperforming that figure by 2.73. They average 11.57 shots and 3.86 shots on target per game, with scoring contributions spread rather than reliant on one phase of play.
Both sides are settled with no major disruption ahead of Thursday. Forest will lean on their home tempo, while Ferencvaros bring control, confidence, and efficiency into a fixture that carries attacking potential despite the stakes.
How the bookies view it: Hosts favourites
Nottingham Forest are priced at 13/20 in the match winner market, implying a 60.6% chance of a home win. The draw is available at 31/10, equating to a 24.4% probability, while Ferencváros are priced at 9/2, implying an 18.2% chance of an away victory.
The goals markets point toward an open game. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 5/6, implying a 54.5% chance. Both teams to score is available at 17/20, equating to a 54.1% probability.
Head to Head: First Meeting
First competitive meeting between these two sides.
Players to watch: Gibbs White to push Forest to qualification
Morgan Gibbs-White 1+ shot on target is supported by usage, volume, and opponent profile. He has recorded a shot on target in five of six Europa League appearances. Across his five starts he averages 1.60 shots on target per start, rising when used centrally or as a forward. His most recent start at Braga produced three shots on target from four attempts.
Nottingham Forest average 15.43 shots and 6.57 shots on target per match, creating 26 big chances. Gibbs-White operates between the lines and attacks central shooting zones rather than low value wide shots. Ferencvaros allow over 12 shots per match and have conceded 23 shots on target across seven games.
Forest home control and state point toward sustained pressure and on target effort.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest (4-3-3): Sels, Savona, Milenkovic, Morato, Aina, McAtee, Luiz, Yates, Bakwa, Gibbs-White, Ndoye.
Ferencvaros (3-4-2-1): Grof, Cisse, Raemaekers, Szalai, Makreckis, Romao, Kanichowsky, Cadu, Levi, Zachariassen, Yusuf.
Anything else catch the eye?
Over 2.5 goals stands out for Nottingham Forest v Ferencvaros based on chance volume, shot profiles, and conversion trends across the league phase.
Forest games have produced a steady flow of attacking output. They average 15.43 shots and 6.57 shots on target per match, with an xGF of 14.8 across seven games. That level of chance creation is supported by 26 big chances, one of the higher totals in the competition.
While Forest have underperformed that chance count with 11 goals, their non-penalty xG of 10.80 suggests goals continue to be created even when finishing dips. At home, Forest’s tempo increases, and their defensive control has not prevented open game states, particularly against sides comfortable in possession.
Ferencvaros add to that profile rather than dampen it. They have scored 12 goals from a non-penalty xG of 8.27, a positive gap of 2.73, showing efficient finishing rather than reliance on low-quality volume. They have created 19 big chances, scored in six of seven matches, and average over one goal per game despite a moderate shot count. Their matches rarely stagnate due to their willingness to attack when space opens.
Defensively, neither side suppresses shots aggressively. Forest concede 6.71 shots on target per game, while Ferencvaros allow regular box entries and shots without collapse. With Forest needing goals to chase a top-eight outcome and Ferencvaros focused on securing position rather than containment, the tactical balance points toward an open contest.
The combination of high xGF, strong big chance volume, and positive finishing trends makes over 2.5 goals the most supported angle in this fixture.
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