Borussia Dortmund and Inter Milan are in similar positions on the edge of the top eight after their losses last week, with even a win not guaranteeing qualification to the top group. The three points are a must, but the winner will also need a large dose of luck.
Borussia Dortmund and Inter have too much in common, which makes this clash not only more interesting but also extremely difficult to predict.
At first glance, both teams lost to London teams in the previous round, although Inter faced Premier League title favorites Arsenal, and Dortmund stumbled against Tottenham after an early red card for Svensson.
The teams are almost neck and neck in the standings and also enter the match with identical results in recent weeks – three wins, one draw, and one loss each.
Interestingly, however, the Nerazzurri are not among the highest-scoring teams in the Champions League (13 goals in seven games), while the Prussians have scored 19 in the same period. And here comes the other key difference.
Inter boast one of the most solid defences in the tournament, while Borussia Dortmund have conceded the most goals of all the teams in the Top 24 (15).
There is another key point – the Nerazzurri have lost each of their last three Champions League games, which is well below the expected level of last year's finalists.
How the bookies view it: Most competitive clash on Wednesday
The bookmakers have definitely struggled to assess the chances of the two teams, as can be seen from the closeness of the odds. It is important to note that the hosts are not the favourites.
At the moment, you can back Borussia Dortmund at 2/1, while Inter are available at 7/5. If you think there is a possibility that the match will end without a winner, you can choose a draw at 12/5.
Recent head-to-head: Home advantage is key
It has been more than six years since Borussia Dortmund and Inter Milan last faced each other. Their last meeting was at a similar stage, but in the group phase of the 2019/20 tournament.
In that edition, the teams played twice, exchanging one home win each. The interesting thing about the last match at this stadium is that Dortmund managed to come back from 2-0 down to beat Inter 3-2.
Players to watch: Dimarco has never been better
Inter Milan are only halfway through the season, and Federico Dimarco has already recorded more goal contributions than in any of his previous campaigns (G5, A8).
He is yet to contribute to a Champions League goal, but his recent form of three goals and two assists in five games makes him a worthy pick.
Probable line-ups
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Can, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Ryerson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Bensebaini, Beier, Silva, Guirassy
Inter Milan: Sommer, Akanji, Acerbi, Bastoni, Dimarco, Susic, Zielinski, Barella, Henrique, Thuram, Martinez
Anything else catch the eye?
Inter Milan have already played over 30 fixtures this season and failed to score in only one of them – in the 1-0 loss to their eternal rivals AC Milan. Win or lose, the Nerazzurri have been effective in the final third, and we see no way Dortmund will stop them from scoring either.
With this in mind, it will be extremely hard for Inter to take out BVB at Signal Iduna Park. If they manage to transfer their good domestic form, yes, but we believe the 1X double chance is quite valuable given their incredible home form.
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