Thursday evening sees the last of the men’s quarter-finals played at the ATP Rome Masters 2024, with bookies’ favourite Stefanos Tsitsipas taking on the big-serving Nicolas Jarry.
To the casual observer, an in-form Tsitsipas up against the No 21 seed Jarry seems like a no-brainer. Dig a little deeper, however, and this is a nuanced match-up with plenty of lucrative betting potential. Read on for our Tsitsipas vs Jarry prediction and betting tips.
Tsitsipas looked about as rocky as it gets in his opening match here in Rome. The Greek barely scraped past world No 41 Jan-Lennard Struff, coming within inches of defeat. Since then, however, he’s been ablaze–straight sets wins over Cam Norrie and Alex de Minaur, the latter coming for the loss of just three games.
With a host of upsets and withdrawals this year in Rome, Tsitsipas will feel as though this title is his to lose. Jarry will be eager to spoil the party however, and he’s done it before against the 25-year-old.
The Chilean owns a positive head-to-head against Tsitsipas, and knows how to trouble him on serve. Jarry has been building slowly in Rome, defeating three players outside the world’s top 30 so far. His most recent performance against Alexandre Muller was his sharpest, and he’ll be eager to leverage that momentum into a big win here.
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How the Bookies View It: Tsitsipas a Heavy Favourite
Bookmakers aren’t having a bar of Jarry in this match-up, giving the Chilean massive underdog odds. Bet365 puts him at 3/1 to win, with Tsitsipas at just 1/4. Set betting is at 4/5 for the No 3 seed to win in straight sets.
Recent Head-to-Head: Jarry Holds the Edge
Tsitsipas and Jarry have met five times before on the ATP Tour, with Jarry leading the head-to-head 3-2. Most recently, the 28-year-old won in Beijing 6-4, 6-4. Four of their meetings were last year alone, with each winning two.
Anything Else Catch the Eye?
Jarry has the ability to trouble Tsitsipas with his big serve. Getting it up high to the one-handed backhand will make it challenging for Tsitsipas to get good returns into play, and will be a pattern that Jarry looks to target.
The Chilean was markedly improved on serve in his most recent match. His first serve percentage was up to 68 percent, first serve points won were at 80 percent, 15 aces were landed and he only dropped serve once. This reflects a solid shift from his earlier two matches, where he was in the low 60s and 70s for first serves made and won, hitting far less aces, and dropping his serve several times.
Superstitious? Neither Tsitsipas or Jarry have won back-to-back matches against each other. Jarry won the last one.
Tsitsipas vs Jarry Betting Tips & Predictions
Tsitsipas is the favourite in this match for good reason. On the balance of probability, he’ll be the one advancing to play in the semi-finals this weekend. His confidence is high, clay court game locked in, and could very well race through this one.
However, we say Jarry’s odds are undervalued here, and suggest taking a punt on the upset. He’s defeated the Greek three times–twice in the last year–and is looking sharp on serve. While Jarry has nothing to lose, Tsitsipas will have plenty of expectation on his mercurial shoulders.
- Jarry to win @ 3/1
- Two sets total @ 8/15
This match takes place last on Center Court, with Tsitsipas and Jarry taking to Foro Italico not before 7pm local time. While you wait, check out our outright winner and dark horse predictions for the ATP Rome Masters 2024.
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