In football betting, ‘shots on target' typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
The shots on target betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
Ipswich vs Leicester
Ipswich Town will host Leicester City in a Premier League match at Portman Road. Leicester have conceded the second-highest xGA from set pieces in the league, with a xGA of 6.0, and no team has allowed more shots from set pieces than Leicester.
Despite this, they've conceded only one goal from set pieces, suggesting potential vulnerability. Ipswich rank seventh for shots from set pieces, averaging 4.0 per home game, and have scored twice from a xG of 2.59, indicating they create opportunities but lack clinical finishing.
Leicester lead the Premier League with the highest non-penalty xGA of 1.63, showing that they give up plenty of chances. Ipswich's defensive line-up may be affected by injuries to six first-team players, likely resulting in a central defensive pairing of Cameron Burgess and Dara O'Shea.
Burgess has registered two shots on goal in his last two appearances, with one on target, while O'Shea has had at least one shot in five of his six matches this season. Unfortunately, there is no value in O’Shea registering a shot, but given Leicester's defensive vulnerabilities and Ipswich's set-piece capabilities, we could see Ipswich threaten at set-pieces.
- Best Bets: Cam Burgess to have a shot at goal at 2.0 with Paddy
- Best Bet: Cam Burgess to have a header on target at 8.50 with Skybet
Southampton vs Everton
We backed Dwight McNeil last weekend and it paid out and the odds are still very attractive, so I am happy to go back in again when Southampton host Everton.
McNeil has revelled in his new central role supporting striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin. This shift has seen McNeil register 16 shots, with seven on target. He has now registered a shot on target in six of his last seven games.
He is likely to be taking free-kicks around the box, and with Southampton looking desperately vulnerable defensively, he should have plenty of opportunities. The Saints are conceding an average of 1.56 xGA at home this season, conceding 6.50 shots on target per 90 minutes, with only Wolves conceding more. No side has conceded more shots in the box than Russell Martins side.
Skybet are offering odds of 1.62 for this bet which implies a 61% chance, but we can back this at Paddy at 2.0 which suggests this is a 50/50 chance, yet McNeil has registered a shot on target in 66% of his starts this season.
In my column last week, I mentioned Southampton's poor defending from set pieces and advised backing Erling Haaland to have a header on target, which won. This week, I want to support one Everton player in doing the same.
Opta stats reveal Southampton have struggled defensively this season, conceding seven goals from set pieces—the highest in the league—with an xGA of 6.3.
They allow an average of 6.0 shots per home game from set pieces, also the highest in the league. Everton, under Sean Dyche, have capitalised on such weaknesses, leading the league in set-piece goals.
Defender James Tarkowski, though having only six shots this season—all headers—has registered attempts in four matches. He will come forward for every set piece, and the delivery from McNeil is predominately aimed at him, given his strength in the air. Given Southampton's vulnerabilities and Everton's proficiency in set pieces, Tarkowski presents a significant aerial threat in this game.
- Best Bet: James Tarkowski 1+ shot at 1.80 with Skybet
- Best Bet: James Tarkowski 1+ header on target at 5.50 with Skybet
- Best Bet: Dwight McNeil to have 1 or more shots on target at 2.0 with Paddy
If we combined Burgess and Tarkowski to register a header on target, we could get 46.75 with Skybet.
