In football betting, a “shot on target” typically refers to any shot directed towards the goal that would have gone in had it not been saved by the goalkeeper or blocked by the last defender.
This betting market involves predicting the total number of shots on target during a match by a team or individual player, often including shots that were saved or blocked but were otherwise on target.
Our shots on target betting picks
After a short break from the column we returned with one winner from three, landing a 13/8 return as Erling Haaland produced a header on target against Liverpool. With the international break now underway the focus shifts to World Cup qualifying, where a few angles stand out across the fixture list.
Liechtenstein vs Wales
Jordan James to record one or more shots on target looks a strong angle given the match context and his output in qualifying. Wales sit third on ten points and must win to have any chance of progressing, so they are expected to play on the front foot against a Liechtenstein side who have lost all six games in the campaign and conceded 23 goals in six games. That should give James the licence to step higher and join attacks.
Across his six qualifying appearances he has taken nine shots with six on target, and whenever he has played sixty or more minutes in midfield he has produced efforts. His clearest example came away to North Macedonia where he delivered five shots and two on target in a game where Wales needed initiative. Even in shorter cameos he found accuracy, hitting the target in both Kazakhstan and Liechtenstein home fixtures despite limited minutes.
With Wales forced into an attacking approach and the visitors giving up chances regularly, James should again find space around the edge of the box. His record of clean strikes makes one shot on target a fair and well-supported bet.
- Best Bet: Jordan James over 0.5 shots on target at 41/50 with BetMGM with Bet365
Luxembourg vs Germany
Joshua Kimmich to have one or more shots on target is a strong bet when you line up his recent qualifying output with his role in this Germany side. He has seven shots and five on target across these four games, and his shift from a pure holding midfielder to an inverted full-back has pushed him into far better shooting positions.
The Luxembourg match showed exactly what that looks like: five attempts, four on target and two goals, with one of those coming from the penalty spot.
His involvement on set-pieces and particularly penalties adds another layer of security. Any dead-ball around the box brings him into play, and if Germany win a penalty he is first in line. Even in the tougher trip to Slovakia he still found an on-target effort from range, which highlights his confidence to shoot even when space is tight.
He has played every minute of the qualifying campaign, he sees a huge amount of the ball in advanced areas and his accuracy has been excellent. With consistent volume, clean technique and control of key set-pieces, one shot on target is a fair line.
- Best Bet: Joshua Kimmich over 0.5 shots on target at 13/10 with BetMGM
Albania vs England
Jude Bellingham to record one or more shots on target is backed up strongly by both his England qualifying output and his domestic form since returning from injury.
England are already through, so a degree of rotation from Thomas Tuchel is likely, and that increases the chance that Bellingham starts in an advanced role. When he has started as an attacking midfielder in qualifying he has been productive, taking thirteen shots with five on target across the campaign.
He delivered three attempts with two on target against Albania and followed that with three shots and three on target in Andorra, showing how naturally he finds shooting positions when he plays high up.
His domestic numbers only reinforce that picture. Since returning from injury he has played six matches for Real Madrid in La Liga and the Champions League, producing sixteen shots with ten on target. In that run he has posted two on-target efforts at Getafe, one against Juventus, three against Barcelona, two versus Valencia, one against Liverpool and another at Rayo Vallecano.
His roles have varied between attacking midfield, central midfield and wide midfield, but his shot volume and accuracy have remained consistent.
With England expected to dominate the ball and Bellingham likely to be given freedom to step forward, his blend of late runs, clean technique and steady shot output makes one shot on target a fair line.
- Best Bet: Jude Bellingham over 0.5 shots target at 7/10 with Coral
Further Reading
- Greece vs Scotland Prediction and Betting Tips
- Switzerland vs Sweden Prediction and Betting Tips
- Slovenia vs Kosovo Prediction and Betting Tips
- Cyprus vs Austria Prediction and Betting Tips
- Bosnia and Hervegovina vs Romania Prediction and Betting Tips
The Betting Desk is run by Neil Potter. Neil built and refined all of the site’s data models, helping it grow into a trusted source of analysis across the Premier League, EFL and major tournaments. His models track key metrics, long term trends and areas where market prices move away from underlying performance.
GambleAware