The Championship play-off semi-finals begin on Friday night when Hull City host Millwall at the MKM Stadium, with an 8pm kick-off opening what looks one of the hardest ties to call across the EFL play-offs.
Hull only secured sixth place on the final day, beating Norwich City 2-1 to edge Wrexham out of the top six. It completed a remarkable turnaround under Sergej Jakirovic. Twelve months ago Hull were battling relegation, operating under a transfer embargo and relying heavily on free transfers and loan signings to rebuild the squad.
Despite reaching the play-offs, Hull's underlying numbers remain concerning. Their xPTS total of 54.87 is comfortably the lowest of the four remaining sides and their recent data is poor. Across the last eight matches they rank 22nd in the Championship for xPTS with only 8.01, averaging 1.04 xG while conceding 1.38 xGA per game. On recent process alone, they arrive as one of the weakest sides left in the division.
Millwall finished third on 83 points and enter the tie as favourites, though their recent form also raises concerns. Across the last eight games they have produced only 6.53 xPTS, the lowest return in the Championship during that period, while conceding 1.89 xGA per game. Their xG supremacy of -0.48 highlights how regularly opponents have controlled matches against them.
There have at least been signs of improvement recently. Over the last four matches Millwall improved to 3.98 xPTS and reduced their xGA to 0.84 per game. The key question heading into Friday is whether that represents genuine recovery or only a short-term improvement inside a wider decline.
How the bookies view it: Millwall edge favouritism
Hull City are priced at 43/20 in the match winner market, implying a 31.75% probability of victory. Millwall are available at 7/5, implying 41.67%, while the draw is 47/20, implying 29.85%.
The market leans towards Millwall and the season data supports that stance. They finished as the Championship's strongest away side and already won 3-1 at the MKM Stadium earlier this season.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 11/10, implying 47.62%. Hull have conceded 1.38 xGA per game across the last eight matches and 67% of their last six home fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is priced at 5/6, implying 54.55%. Hull have scored 35 home league goals this season and Millwall's recent defensive numbers suggest opportunities for both sides.
Head to Head: Goals common in recent meetings
Hull City and Millwall have met 17 times across the last nine years, with Hull winning six, Millwall winning five and six matches ending level. The aggregate score across those meetings stands at 19-18 to Hull, averaging 2.18 goals per game.
Both teams to score has landed in 10 of those 17 meetings, a 58.8% strike rate, while nine of 17 have gone over 2.5 goals. The two meetings this season both finished 3-1 away wins, with Hull winning at The Den in December 2025 before Millwall responded with a 3-1 victory at the MKM in March 2026.
The last six Championship meetings between the clubs have averaged 2.33 goals per game, with three producing over 2.5 goals. Millwall have won the last two league meetings, although Hull won three of the previous six fixtures played between 2021 and 2024.
Players to watch: McBurnie & Tigers too strong for Lions
Oli McBurnie has registered at least one shot on target in 24 of his 32 full starts this season, a hit rate of 75.0%. At home that figure rises to 82.4%, with 14 of his 17 home starts producing at least one shot on target.
His recent form strengthens the case considerably. McBurnie has hit the target in nine of his last ten games, registering 16 shots on target across that run and averaging 1.18 per 90 minutes this season. He converts 44.7% of his shots on target into goals.
The one caveat is specific to this fixture. In both Championship meetings with Millwall this season he failed to register a shot on target, and Millwall's defensive shape has proven capable of limiting him.
Predicted line-ups
Hull City 4-2-3-1: Pandur, Coyle, Egan, Hughes, Giles, Slater, Crooks, Belloumi, Gelhardt, Millar, McBurnie.
Millwall 4-2-3-1: Patterson, Leonard, Cooper, Crama, Sturge, de Norre, Bannan, Azeez, Neghli, Ballo, Ivanovic.
Anything else catch the eye?
Both teams to score looks the strongest statistical angle for the first leg at the MKM Stadium, with both sides carrying enough attacking threat and defensive vulnerability to support the market.
Hull have scored 35 home goals this season and still create chances despite their recent downturn. Their 1.04 xG per game across the last eight matches combined with Millwall conceding 1.89 xGA per game projects Hull close to 1.5 expected goals in this matchup.
Millwall's defensive process remains fragile. Opponents are averaging 23.75 touches inside their box per game during the last eight matches, while Hull have created nine big chances across that same period.
Millwall also carry enough attacking threat to score themselves. They are averaging 1.42 xG per game over the last eight matches and Hull continue to look vulnerable defensively, conceding 15 big chances during that stretch.
Set pieces are another concern for Hull. Opponents have generated 4.97 xG from set-piece situations against them across the last eight matches, the 19th worst record in the Championship during that period. Millwall's physical profile gives them a strong route to exploit that weakness.
With both sides showing defensive flaws and enough attacking output to capitalise, both teams to score is strongly supported by the numbers.
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