Aston Villa welcome Nottingham Forest to Villa Park on Thursday night in the second leg of their Europa League playoff tie.
Nottingham Forest travel to Villa Park with a one-goal advantage, as a Chris Wood penalty gave them a 1-0 victory at the City Ground.
Vitor Pereira’s visitors took a massive step in securing their Premier League status four days after that first leg victory, as they won 1-3 at Stamford Bridge against a poor Chelsea side, moving them six points clear of the relegation zone with just three games to play.
The Tricky Trees are now unbeaten in each of their previous 10 matches in all competitions (W7-D3-L0), winning each of their past five.
Villa, on the other hand, come into this clash off the back of three consecutive defeats, as away losses to Fulham and Nottingham Forest were followed by a disappointing 1-2 loss at home to relegation-threatened Spurs.
The Villans remain in fifth position in the Premier League table, behind fourth-placed Liverpool on goal difference but now just six clear of sixth-placed Bournemouth.
Unai Emery will take confidence from the fact that his side have won all six of their Europa League fixtures at Villa Park this season, scoring 14 goals in the process.
How the bookies view it: Forest favourites to reach the final
Nottingham Forest are favourites to reach the final in Istanbul, with bet365 pricing them at just 4/6 To Qualify, whilst Aston Villa are 11/10 to advance.
The Villans are 3/4 favourites to win inside 90 minutes, with Nottingham Forest being 10/3 underdogs, whilst the draw is 11/4.
Head to head: Home a big advantage
Playing at home has proven to be a big advantage in recent meetings, with the home team winning six and drawing one of the last seven head-to-heads, with Aston Villa winning each of the past four at Villa Park against Forest – including a 3-1 victory in the Premier League at the turn of the year.
Players to watch: Ollie to score against Forest once again?
Prior to the first leg at the City Ground last week, Ollie Watkins had a goal contribution in each of Villa’s last four Europa League fixtures, scoring three goals over both legs against Bologna, as well as scoring away and providing an assist at home to Lille in the last-16.
What’s more, the England international has found the back of the net in three of his last four appearances against Forest at Villa Park – including netting in the 3-1 victory in the Premier League at the turn of the year – and is an appealing 10/11 at bet365 to Score or Assist.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Predicted line-ups:
Aston Villa will still be without the injured Boubacar Kamara and the ineligible Ross Barkley, whilst Amadou Onana is a doubt.
Nottingham Forest will be without the injured John Victor, Willy Boly, Nicola Savona, and Callum Hudson-Odoi, whilst Murillo, Zach Abbott and Morgan Gibbs-White are doubts.
Aston Villa: Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne, Luis, Tielemans, McGinn, Buendia, Rogers, Watkins
Nottingham Forest: Sels, Aina, Milenkovic, Morato, Williams, Dominguez, Anderson, Gibbs-White, Hutchinson, Jesus, Wood
Anything else catch the eye?
The first leg last week at the City Ground proved to be a tight affair, but I reckon we could see a few more goals at Villa Park on Thursday.
Over 2.5 Goals has been a winning selection in eight of Forest’s previous nine away matches in all competitions, and a repeat here pays 1/1 at bet365.
What’s more, each of Villa’s last three home matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals, with this selection also paying out in their Premier League meeting at this venue at the start of the year.
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