Will Toulouse's resurgence continue into the new year, or will the surprising leaders Lens prove too much of a challenge? Get ready for the first Ligue 1 match of 2026 with our analysis and predictions.
With their back-to-back wins to end the year, Toulouse are back in the conversation for Europe, as they start the new year just four points behind Rennes in sixth. Of course, the Violets can hardly compare to most of the teams at the top, but they have their chances.
Statistically, Toulouse fans have every right to feel confident, as their side won four of its last five first games of the year, with their last defeat dating back to 2020. But there is also cause for concern, because their favourites have only achieved three home wins in eight games so far this season.
Lens remain the only team keeping pace with PSG, currently leading the table, albeit by just one point. The Blood and Gold boast seven consecutive wins in all competitions and a total of nine in their last 10 games.
In terms of goals scored, Lens lag significantly behind the other title contenders, but the fact that they have the strongest defense in the league should not be overlooked.
How the bookies view it: Dangerously close chances
The bookmakers' odds prove that finding a favoуrite in this clash is almost impossible. Therefore, you will see that each platform offers similar odds, with Lens usually having a slight advantage.
At the moment, you can pick Toulouse at around 7/4, while Lens are available at 31/20. According to the bookmakers, a draw is quite possible at 23/10.
Recent head-to-head: Toulouse – 1; Lens – 7 wins
The most interesting fact before we look at the full statistics is that Toulouse and Lens played at the same time last year in their first match of 2025. Back then, Les Violets managed to win 1-0 away, and later achieved a draw at home.
However, it should be noted that this was Toulouse's only victory in the last 10 H2Hs, while Lens had seven wins in a row before that.
Players to watch: Edouard is loving life back in France
Lens have been blessed with a bunch of players in sensational form, but we have to highlight Odsonne Edouard, who hasn’t had this much fun in at least five years, when he last had a season this successful.
The 27-year-old striker has seven Ligue 1 goals already this season, including a brace from the previous round against Nice. He also began his professional career at Toulouse, so he will be after his former side when he meets them for the first time.
Probable line-ups
Toulouse: Restes, Cresswell, Nicolaisen, McKenzie, Donnum, Vossah, Casseres Jr, Kamanzi, Hidalgo, Gboho, Emersonn
Lens: Risser, Sarr, Baidoo, Ganiou, Aguilar, Thomasson, Bulatovic, Udol, Said, Thauvin, Edouard
Anything else catch the eye?
Week after week, Lens prove that beating them is an incredibly difficult task regardless of the location of the match. Especially now, they can boast three consecutive away wins.
The important thing, however, is that with the exception of one match, they have conceded a goal in every away game this season. Whenever they win, it is by a narrow margin, and we expect something similar now.
Toulouse are definitely improving and will show their strongest side, but Lens are perhaps a little too strong at the moment. We expect a 2-1 win for the visitors.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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