Portugal’s disasterclass against D.R. Congo set them on a dangerous path, although it isn’t too late for them to win the group if they claim the remaining six points. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan will be hoping to recapture some of the strong form they showed in the months leading up to the World Cup, as they seek to earn their first-ever points.
Failing to win the group will place Portugal against significantly tougher opposition in the Round of 32. For example, if they win the group, they will face one of the third-placed teams in the next stage, which is the most favourable option.
If they finish second in the group, they will face the second team in Group L, which could very well be Croatia. And if they qualify in third place, they may end up against France, which will be a disaster.
Therefore, Portugal need to change a little bit of everything ahead of this second fixture, as their performance against Congo was below standard. One shot on target is all they registered within 90 minutes, while holding the ball for 75% of the time.
Uzbekistan were denied their dream World Cup debut, but they can still take some positives from the match, given their 1.16 xG in that match—the highest for an Asian debutant in 44 years.
However, it became clear once again that Uzbekistan are not at the level needed to compete with the top teams, as this was their third consecutive loss this month. Before facing Colombia, they played the Netherlands and Canada in friendly matches ahead of the World Cup and lost those as well.
How the bookies view it: Expected advantage for the Lusos
It’s hardly surprising that Portugal is the overwhelming favourite against Uzbekistan, given the quality of their squads and the 45-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings.
Right now, you can back Portugal at around 1/5. The draw is priced at 11/2, and the odds for Uzbekistan range from 12/1 to 14/1, and you can find the best ones using our best mobile apps for World Cup betting.
Recent head-to-head: Portugal have struggled against Asian national teams
Portugal and Uzbekistan have never faced each other in the past; they haven’t even played any friendly matches. The only thing worth mentioning is that the Selecao das Quinas lost to South Korea four years ago and drew with Iran eight years ago, so their recent performances against Asian national teams have been lackluster.
Players to watch: Watch out for the Portuguese Magnifico
All eyes will, of course, be on Cristiano Ronaldo, who failed to create any danger in the first match. But we must also highlight Bruno Fernandes, who was one of the best players on the pitch, as usual.
Against the D.R. Congo, he took two shots from outside the box that missed the target, but against Uzbekistan, we expect him to have more opportunities. Moreover, it’s only a matter of time before he delivers one of his magnificent assists, which is also a possibility for this match.
Probable line-ups
Portugal: Costa, Mendes, Inacio, Dias, Dalot, Silva, Neves, Fernandes, Neto, Ronaldo, Leao
Uzbekistan: Yusupov, Nasrullaev, Ashurmatov, Alijonov, Khusanov, Fayzullaev, Hamrobekov, Urunov, Masharipov, Sergeev, Shomurodov
Anything else catch the eye?
Underdog national teams like Cape Verde and Curaçao have already proven that anything can happen, and that even the best can falter against a well-organized defence.
We’ve also seen that such matches usually result in a lot of corner kicks for the favourite, especially when there are no goals. Right now, the line for Portugal is over 6.5 corners and is priced at 17/20, which doesn’t look bad at all.
Alternatively, you could look for saves by Utkir Yusupov, but that’s a riskier bet, given that Portugal didn’t impress on offense in their first match.
Still, we expect the Selecao das Quinas to come out fired up, and it’s more likely we’ll see a completely one-sided match in which Portugal keeps a clean sheet.
GambleAware