Portugal v Croatia
Portugal

Portugal vs Croatia

, KO: 00:00 , Toronto Stadium
Croatia

Portugal and Croatia do battle in Toronto in the early hours of Friday morning in the Round of 32 in what looks set to be a tight encounter.

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It’s fair to say that Portugal were pretty underwhelming in Group K, as despite being favourites to top the group, they could only finish in second, two points behind Colombia.

Roberto Martinez’s men played out a disappointing 1-1 draw with DR Congo in their group opener, and despite thrashing debutants Uzbekistan on MD2, they failed to clinch top spot following a goalless draw with Colombia.

Croatia started their campaign with a 4-2 defeat to England, in a match they were blown away in the second half by the Three Lions.

However, Zlatko Dalic’s men bounced back in trademark style, edging a 1-0 victory over Panama before claiming a late 3-1 victory over Ghana to clinch second spot in Group L.

How the bookies view it: Portugal favourites

Despite a couple of poor performances, Portugal are favourites to advance to the Round of 16, with bet365 pricing A Selecao at just 4/11 To Qualify, whilst the win inside 90 minutes is 3/4.

Croatia are 11/5 underdogs to advance to the last 16, whilst the win in regulation time looks big at 4/1.

More match odds are available on our best mobile apps for World Cup betting.

Head to head: Portuguese dominance

The first-ever meeting between these two nations came at Euro 96, with Portugal winning 3-0 in the group stages.

Since then, the Iberian nation has gone on to win a further six of the following nine meetings (W6-D2-L1), suffering a solitary defeat.

Interestingly, Both Teams to Score has landed in each of the last five meetings – all in the space of the last six years – and a repeat pays an appealing 19/20 at bet365.

Interested in why both teams scoring is such a strong angle? Check out our Masterclass on BTTS and sharpen your match-reading game.

Players to watch: Bruno to bag another goal involvement?

Despite just one assist to his name in the tournament so far, Bruno Fernandes continues to be Portugal’s most reliable creator.

The Manchester United captain broke the all-time Premier League record for assists in one season last campaign, as he recorded 21 assists for the Devils – as well as scoring nine times – and he is 1/1 at bet365 to Score or Assist in Toronto in the early hours of Friday morning.

Predicted line-ups:

Portugal: Costa, Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes, Vitinha, J Neves, Neto, Fernandes, Felix, Ronaldo

Croatia: Livakovic, Stanisic, Sutalo, Pongranic, Gvardiol, Modric, Kovacic, Vlasic, Sucic, Perisic, Budimir

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Extra time

This is one of the most evenly matched ties in the Round of 32. Portugal's Elo rating of 1990 gives them a 46.4% win probability against Croatia's 28.4%, with the market making Portugal much shorter at 5/6, implying 53.3%. That leaves the Portuguese looking slightly overpriced in the result market.

Roberto Martinez's side have impressed throughout the tournament. Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva have dictated games in midfield, while Cristiano Ronaldo continues to provide a decisive presence in the penalty area. Portugal's 5-0 victory over Uzbekistan highlighted their attacking depth, and they have averaged 1.63 xGF while conceding just 0.56 xGA per game.

Croatia's experience keeps them firmly in the contest. Zlatko Dalic's side have reached the semi-finals at each of the last two World Cups and showed their resilience by beating Ghana 2-1 to secure qualification. My model projects 2.62 expected goals, while the narrow Elo gap and Croatia's knockout pedigree make extra time the standout betting angle.

Anything else catch the eye?

Portugal are priced as 4/11 favourites to advance to the Round of 16, but given their performances at the tournament so far, coupled with Croatia’s recent World Cup record, I’m expecting a tight encounter.

Roberto Martinez’s men drew against both DR Congo and Colombia in the group stages, and a repeat pays an appealing 5/2 at bet365.

What’s more, Croatia drew four of their opening five matches at the previous World Cup before being knocked out in the semis by eventual winners Argentina, which only adds to the appeal.

Portugal vs Croatia Betting Tips & Predictions
Both Teams to Score
19/20
Bet365
Draw
5/2
Bet365
Further Reading
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