Olympiacos welcome Bayer Leverkusen to the Karaiskakis Stadium for the second time this year, just a month after beating them flawlessly to secure their place in the playoffs.
The Red-Whites found their form at the right time, after failing to win any of their first five League Phase fixtures. Olympiacos won their last three matches, which was just enough to place them in 18th place.
Notably, Bayer Leverkusen finished only a point above them in 16th place. Die Werkself had one of the toughest schedules and remarkably beat Benfica, Villarreal, and Manchester City, only to lose to Olympiacos in January.
The 2002 finalists have had few reasons for celebration from away games since reaching the final 24 years ago. Leverkusen have only won nine of the 45 UCL away matches they have played since then.
How the bookies view it: They don’t trust the hosts to win again
Despite the outcome of the previous encounter, bookmakers believe Olympiacos’ chances of winning are lower this time. If we go back a month, the Red-Whites were priced at 6/5, while the visitors were available at 21/10.
This time, bookmakers give Olympiacos 31/20, while Bayer Leverkusen are available at 9/5. If you want to back a draw, you can do it at 23/10.
Recent head-to-head: Olympiacos clutched a 2-0 win in January
Obviously, Olympiacos won the recent clash in January, after a flawless first half and goals from Costinha and Taremi. And this wasn’t their first win over Leverkusen, as the Red-Whites once crushed them 6-2 in 2002.
We should mention that Die Werkself were the better team on the pitch a month ago, but the hosts were clinical with their chances.
Players to watch: Grimaldo always shines in the UCL
Alejandro Grimaldo has had a quieter start to the new year compared to his output in the early stages of the season, but he always shows up in Champions League matches.
The 30-year-old defender remains Leverkusen’s top performer in goal contributions this season, with 11 goals and eight assists across 29 appearances. And in the Champions League alone, he has four goals and an assist from the League Phase.
Probable line-ups
Olympiacos: Tzolakis, Costinha, Pirola, Retsos, Ortega, Hezze, Mouzakitis, Rodinei, Kaabi, Podence, Taremi
Bayer Leverkusen: Blaswich, Quansah, Andrich, Tapsoba, Vazquez, Palacios, Garcia, Grimaldo, Maza, Poku, Schick
Anything else catch the eye?
Bayer Leverkusen seem to be operating in top gear, with five decisive wins in their last six competitive matches, since they lost to Olympiacos.
In four of those six matches, they scored 3+ goals. Meanwhile, the hosts have had problems scoring goals in February, and only managed to win one of their four fixtures.
The odds for Bayer Leverkusen to win are extremely attractive, and we believe they will be far more effective in the final third this time. They finished the previous H2H with 2.58 xG and zero goals. This time, we believe at least a couple of their shots will find their target.
When a price looks too good to ignore, that’s value. Learn how to identify it with our Value Betting guide.
GambleAware