Group 3 of League C turned out to be far more competitive than anticipated. Northern Ireland will hope to get revenge for the surprising defeat they suffered a month ago.
Northern Ireland were named the big favourite in the group ahead of the competition but Bulgaria and Belarus proved to be tougher than expected. The Green and White Army cannot afford more mistakes or their dreams of getting promoted to League B could fade away.
Getting a winning goal has been the biggest issue in Bulgaria's game, as Ilian Iliev's men got seven draws in the last 10 fixtures, including five out of seven in 2024.
Bulgaria are yet to concede a goal in this edition of the Nations League and were probably supposed to have more points. The 0-0 draws to Belarus and Luxembourg helped with nothing but extend their unbeaten streak to nine games. The Lions have to show more if they really plan to contest the top positions in this group in the final games.
How the bookies view it: Northern Ireland with an even bigger advantage
Northern Ireland were a slight favourite in the reverse fixture and failed. This time, on their home turf, their advantage is far more significant. Betano gave them 17/20 to win on Tuesday, while Bulgaria's chances have been estimated at 23/6. The draw sits at 23/10.
Recent head-to-head: Not looking great for the home side
This happens to be a truly ancient rivalry. The first official match between Northern Ireland and Bulgaria dates back to 1972 and the teams have met a total of 10 times since then. The three most recent matches happened between 2021 and 2024, with Bulgaria winning twice, plus one 0-0.
Players to watch: Who will get booked this time?
If we have to be completely transparent, there isn't a single player on either side to watch out for goals. Bulgaria have had a single goal in their three fixtures to date, while Northern Ireland had three in total. The matches in this group have been underwhelming and it is hard to expect too much action.
It could be worth looking at Alex Petkov and Fabian Nurnberger from Bulgaria. Both midfielders spent 270 minutes on the pitch in three games and picked up two yellow cards in the process. Knowing that Bulgaria will be on the back foot in this match, they could be in for a third booking if Iliev plays them again.
Probable line-ups
Northern Ireland: P. Charles, Hume, McNair, Toal, Bradley, Saville, S. Charles, Price, Lewis, Marshall, Reid
Bulgaria: Mitov, Popov, Petkov, Atanasov, Nurnberger, Kostadinov, Chochev, Despodov, Krastev, Kirilov, Kolev
Anything else catch the eye?
Betting on cards could be the best option in this match as Bulgaria play rough football that gets them booked a lot. The team received 14 yellow and one red card across three Nations League matches. On the other end, Northern Ireland picked up only 6 yellows.
Referee Jerome Brisard is known to book players for the slightest aggression and showed an average of 5.6 cards in his last five matches.
Other than that, this should be another typical Group 3 match with a low number of goals. Northern Ireland will be the team in command and Bulgaria will focus on defending again. Under 2.5 goals is a solid pick, with 0-0 or 1-0 being the two most probable correct scores.
This UEFA Nations League match between Northern Ireland and Bulgaria will be played on Oct 15, 2024 and kick off at 19:45. Check below for our tipsters best Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.
