A domestic double is the best AC Milan could hope for this season, but to get closer to their ultimate goal, they need to beat Lazio again just days after defeating them in Serie A.
Lazio and AC Milan played a terrific match on Saturday, in which the Rossoneri claimed the three points through Rafael Leao’s goal in the 51st minute. Curiously, it was Milan’s only real opportunity, while Lazio produced more threats and couldn’t take advantage.
This time, the venue will not be San Siro and the Eagles have every right to expect a better result, especially if Milan’s attack once again fails to create goalscoring opportunities. The Rossoneri are, however, unbeaten in 13 consecutive competitive matches, winning nine times.
AC Milan had their fair share of struggles on the road and won only one of their last four away games (D3). But at the same time, they remain unbeaten away from home after six matches.
How the bookies view it: Closer than last week
The odds are quite different from the ones last week, although AC Milan remain favourites to beat Lazio again. The key change is that the Eagles are available at 23/20, while they were given 9/2 last weekend. AC Milan are currently available at 11/0, while last week’s odds had them at 13/20. Also, the draw is available at 9/4.
Recent head-to-head: The Rossoneri won 1-0 five days ago
Obviously, this will be the second clash between the two teams in a week after AC Milan won 1-0 at home in Serie A. And overall, the Rossoneri have had the upper hand in recent years, claiming seven wins from the last 10 H2Hs.
As for the all-time stats, the figures are once again in Milan’s favour, as the Rossoneri lead with 87 to 41 wins. Surprising or not, 65 clashes ended level.
Players to watch: Gila or Romagnoli to see yellow
Both sides have extreme amounts of talent and experience up front, but we can’t really single out a player in this matchup. Rafa Leao scored the winner last week, but his overall performance this season hasn’t exactly been extraordinary.
Although we expect more action, we wouldn’t recommend any goalscorer bets here. Instead, you can take a pick from Lazio’s CB duo Mario Gila and Alessio Romagnoli, who will be tasked with stopping Leao and Nkunku.
Romagnoli got booked on Saturday and his or Gila’s assignment will not get easier on Thursday. Watch out for any accumulations of fouls from either of them and pick the player to get booked live.
Probable line-ups
Lazio: Mandas, Lazzari, Patric, Romagnoli, Tavares, Guendouzi, Belahyane, Basic, Pedro, Noslin, Zaccagni
AC Milan: Maignan, Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Saelemaekers, Ricci, Modric, Rabiot, Estupinan, Nkunku, Leao
Anything else catch the eye?
Without European football to mess up their schedule, AC Milan can focus all their attention to the fights for the Scudetto and Coppa Italia. The Rossoneri made it to the final last season but lost it to Bologna. Eliminating Lazio could send them against Bologna again.
Lazio, however, share a similar situation without international football, and the same goals. The Eagles won their last three home matches and without conceding a single goal. We expect a bit more from the two teams in this clash, but we can’t imagine any extremes.
Lazio are difficult to beat at home and AC Milan have struggled away from home in recent months. If the Eagles can be just a tiny bit more clinical, we should see more action and a match that goes beyond regulation. A 1-1 draw sounds like a solid pick, although there is more than enough value in the regular BTTS market.
Alternatively, we expect to see some cards again, and Betano offers generous odds for both teams to get booked 2+ times. We saw three cards for each side on Saturday, and this time, they are playing for a place in the quarterfinals.
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