Hamburg have fallen dangerously close to the relegation zone, and the situation could get even worse after the match against Bayer Leverkusen, whose desire to win will be relentless after their heavy defeat during the week.
Whether Bayer Leverkusen are running out of steam after a tough half-season or this is just a brief period of poor form remains to be seen, but the three defeats in the last five Bundesliga rounds have certainly made their task of remaining in the top four much more difficult.
The team looked completely clueless against Stuttgart, which led to a crushing 4-1 defeat at home. Kasper Hjulmand will have to find solutions quickly, because even a draw against Hamburg will most likely result in the team dropping out of the top four.
Although the hosts are sinking with each passing round, there are reasons for optimism, as almost every poor performance this season has come away from home. Hamburger have 16 points going into this game, 14 of which have been earned at home.
But there are also some worrying trends, such as the fact that Hamburg have only one win against a team from the top half of the table this season, failing to win their other seven.
How the bookies view it: Closer than expected
It will hardly surprise you to learn that the visitors have an advantage in the odds, but we should note that the difference is not as big as against other teams from the bottom of the table in the recent past.
If you want to back Hamburger, you can do so at 12/5, while Bayer Leverkusen are available at 1/1. The draw is available at 27/10.
Recent head-to-head: First clash in almost eight years
It has been quite a few years since the two teams played an official match, as Hamburg spent seven seasons in the lower division.
Looking back at previous matches, however, we can say that Bayer Leverkusen has dominated the rivalry. Hamburg can boast of only five wins in the last 20 H2Hs. But more importantly, four of those wins came at home.
Players to watch: Flekken has been busier than usual
Bayer Leverkusen’s defence has been at the core of their problems this season, which has led to Mark Flekken making 57 saves in 16 matches. This ranks him among the top two keepers in the league based on the number of saves made.
He averages 3.4 saves per Bundesliga match and has made 4+ saves in eight of his last 10 appearances in all competitions. Betano offer 11/10 for him to repeat those numbers against Hamburger.
Probable line-ups
Hamburger: Fernandes, Capaldo, Vuskovic, Ramos, Jatta, Lokonga, Remberg, Muheim, Vieira, Downs, Dompe
Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken, Quansah, Andrich, Belocian, Arthur, Tillman, Fernandez, Grimaldo, Hofmann, Tella, Terrier
Anything else catch the eye?
While Hamburg have one of the least productive attacks in the league overall, they have scored an average of 1.625 goals per home match. And this could be a good opportunity for them to increase these numbers, as Bayer Leverkusen concede an average of 2.0 goals per away game.
There is a good chance we will see both teams score, and we also believe Die Werkself will need a flawless performance to beat Hamburg.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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