Georgia will try to cling onto the mathematical chances of making it to the World Cup by beating European champions Spain, who have only improved since winning Euro 2024.
Georgia’s last outing saw them get crushed 4-1 by neighbouring Turkey, thus putting an end to their ambitions of reaching the biggest stage in football. Mathematically, the Crusaders can still finish second in the group if they win both games with fine margins and Turkey lose both of theirs. But with Turkey facing the discombobulated Bulgarian national team, it’s likely that Georgia’s efforts won’t matter at all.
Luis de la Fuente’s Spain is on the verge of a new Golden era, as the team stands unbeaten in 29 matches in a row. If they escape defeat against Georgia too, La Roja will better their old record, and the whole world expects them to after the flawless start to this cycle. Spain can boast four wins in four, with 15 goals scored and none conceded in the process. Overall, La Roja won 24 of the last 29 matches (D5).
How the bookies view it: La Roja to break a record with a win
Bookmakers expect a one-sided clash, giving Spain around 1/4 to win on Saturday. Meanwhile, Georgia are available at 12/1, while the draw is priced at 5/1.
Recent head-to-head: Six in a row for Spain
Spain and Georgia met at least once in four of the last five years, making this one of the most active rivalries in international football. The teams were in the same qualification groups for the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024, while also meeting in the 1/8 finals of the latter.
Spain won the last six H2Hs and 12 out of 13 overall. And the goal difference in those last six wins since 2021 is 22:4 in favour of La Roja.
Players to watch: Merino is always at his best for Spain
Lamine Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri will all be out against Georgia, but this shouldn’t be an issue for Spain. There are plenty of options for us – Oyarzabal, Torres, Merino, and others.
We’d like to highlight Arsenal’s Mikel Merino, in particular, as he has been Spain’s best player in this cycle, and with so many key players out, he should have even more chances to shine again. The 29-year-old has scored six goals across La Roja’s four qualification matches to date.
Probable line-ups
Georgia: Mamardashvili, Kakabadze, Kashia, Goglichidze, Gocholeishvili, Kiteishvili, Mekvabishvili, Kochorashvili, Kvilitaia, Kvaratskhelia, Zivzivadze
Spain: Simon, Porro, Laporte, Huijsen, Cucurella, Merino, Zubimendi, Olmo, Pino, Oyarzabal, Torres
Anything else catch the eye?
Spain have gotten used to beating Georgia in recent years and their current form makes it impossible to bet against them in Tbilisi. The one question we have no answer to is whether the Crusaders will find the net at least once again. Georgia scored at least once in three of the last five H2Hs.
But with Spain’s eight clean sheets in WCQ games in a row, we have to bet against it. Bookies actually price the clean sheet at over 7/10, so there is some value still.
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