Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund return to domestic action for the penultimate round of 2025 after their midweek adventures in Europe with different goals but the same need for points.
Few things are guaranteed in life, but Freiburg playing well at home appears to be one of them. The Breisgau Brazilians claimed another home win midweek when they overcame Salzburg in the Europa League.
With this, Freiburg are now on a nine-match unbeaten streak at home, which also includes five wins in a row. And in those five wins, they conceded a single goal, while scoring 11. Their away performances have kept them far from the European spots, but they can make a huge step in the right direction by taking out Borussia Dortmund.
The Prussians went through unexpected struggles when they hosted Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League on Tuesday, and only managed to earn a point.
And if you watched that game, you’d know that Dortmund can count themselves lucky, as only Kobel’s good form and catlike reflexes prevented Bodo from turning it all around. BVB need to leave this one behind and prepare for an even harder match, as Freiburg intend to give them a hell of a fight.
How the bookies view it: Dortmund have the edge
Bookmakers expect a tight game but believe Borussia Dortmund have better chances to claim the spoils. The odds are not that far apart but the visitors have the betting advantage.
You can currently pick Freiburg at 23/10, while Dortmund are available at 23/20. The draw is priced fairly at 5/2.
Recent head-to-head: Black and Yellow dominance
While Freiburg have improved their overall performance in recent years, their performances against Borussia Dortmund, in particular, have been abysmal. It was never even close between them, with BVB winning the last seven matches in a row and each one with 2+ goal margins.
In fact, they won by 3+ goal margins in five of those games, and scored 3+ goals in each of the seven. The overall goal difference from the last 10 H2Hs is 34:10 in favour of the Prussians.
Players to watch: Trust Brandt to make the difference
You will not find any Borussia Dortmund problems among the Bundesliga top scorers and this can be considered a problem, although the team has managed to stay competitive through goals from many individuals.
Out of the bunch, we can highlight Julian Brandt’s current form, as the 29-year-old midfielder scored three goals in his last two appearances.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
Freiburg: Atubolu, Kubler, Ginter, Jung, Treu, Osterhage, Eggestein, Beste, Manzambi, Grifo, Holer
Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Anselmino, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Svensson, Nmecha, Sabitzer, Ryerson, Adeyemi, Brandt, Guirassy
Anything else catch the eye?
Freiburg have made a single mistake at home this season, and it was in their first match of the season. Since then, they have been almost flawless, apart from their draws with Hoffenheim and Eintracht. And they average over two goals scored per home match.
We expect to see more of the same when it comes to the previous H2Hs and the expected goals in this one. All 10 most recent H2Hs featured Over 2.5 goals, while 7/10 saw both teams score at least one goal.
Other than the two main goal markets, we fancy Freiburg to extend their unbeaten streak at home. Borussia Dortmund obviously have the better squad, but the Breisgau Brazilians are not to be underestimated.
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