Chelsea v Burnley
Chelsea

Chelsea vs Burnley

, KO: 15:00 , Stamford Bridge
Burnley

Chelsea will look to climb up into fourth position in the Premier League table on Saturday afternoon as they welcome relegation-threatened Burnley to Stamford Bridge.

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Liam Rosenior began his reign as Chelsea head coach by winning each of his opening four Premier League games in charge of the Blues, and it looked like it was going to be five as they led Leeds United 2-0 at Stamford Bridge last Tuesday.

However, Daniel Farke’s visitors scored twice to salvage a point, meaning Chelsea missed the chance to leapfrog Manchester United into fourth position in the table.

The reigning Club World Cup and Conference League champions did return to winning ways last Friday, as they advanced to the fifth round of the FA Cup following a routine 0-4 victory away at Championship high-flyers Hull City.

Burnley, in contrast, exited the fourth round of the FA Cup last weekend by losing to lower league opposition, as they were knocked out by League One side Mansfield Town 1-2 at Turf Moor – on an afternoon when I landed a 19/20 winner.

However, the Clarets kept their slim hopes of Premier League survival alive last midweek, as they came from two goals down to win 2-3 at Crystal Palace.

That was just their fourth Premier League win of the season and their first since the end of October, but Scott Parker’s men are nine points adrift of safety.

How the bookies view it: Chelsea clear favourites

Unsurprisingly, Chelsea have been installed as clear favourites to claim all three points at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, with bet365 pricing a home success at just 2/9.

Burnley are 11/1 underdogs to back up their victory at Selhurst Park in their last league outing, whilst the draw is also unfancied at 11/2.

Head to head: Blues dominance

Chelsea have dominated this fixture in the Premier League era, with the Blues winning 13 and losing just one of their 19 meetings (W19-D5-L1), with that solitary defeat coming at Stamford Bridge on the opening day of the 2017/18 season.

Players to watch: In-form Joao to strike again?

Liam Rosenior seems to be getting the best out of Joao Pedro, with the Brazilian scoring six goals across his nine appearances since the Englishman took over from Enzo Maresca.

That includes the opener in the Blues’ draw with Leeds United in their last Premier League outing, and the 11/10 on offer at William Hill for the ex-Brighton attacker to score again on Friday night appeals to me.

Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.

Predicted line-ups:

Chelsea are still without the injured Filip Jorgensen, Levi Colwill, Marc Cucurella, Dario Essugo, Romeo Lavia and Jamie Gittens.

Burnley are expected to be missing the injured Axel Tuanzebe, Connor Roberts, Jordan Beyer, Josh Cullen, Mike Tresor and Zeki Amdouni.

Chelsea: Sanchez, James, Chalobah, Fofana, Hato, Santos, Caicedo, Neto, Palmer, Fernandez, Pedro

Burnley: Dubravka, Laurent, Esteve, Worrall, Walker, Hannibal, Ugochukwu, Humphreys, Edwards, Anthony, Flemming

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Chelsea win & over 2.5 goals

Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals is supported by attacking output and Burnley’s defensive profile. Chelsea average 4.62 shots on target at home and consistently apply pressure inside the box. Their record against the bottom five stands at W7-D0-L0, showing they translate control into results against this level of opposition.

The underlying numbers point toward sustained chance creation rather than low volume efficiency. Burnley’s away record is W2-D2-L9 with 32 goals conceded. They allow 5.69 shots on target per game on the road and concede 1.90 xGA across their last four away fixtures. Across their last eight overall they allow 2.09 xGA, highlighting persistent defensive issues.

The combination of Chelsea’s home attacking volume and Burnley’s concession rates creates a strong environment for multiple goals.

Given Chelsea’s dominance in this matchup tier and Burnley’s vulnerability away from home, a home win in a game clearing three goals is aligned with the underlying data. .

Anything else catch the eye?

Chelsea come into this clash having won seven and lost just one of their previous nine matches in all competitions (W7-D1-L1), and should be too strong for their struggling visitors.

However, the Blues are far from watertight at the back, recording a solitary shutout across their past 10 Premier League encounters, shipping 2+ goals in four of their last five at the Bridge.

Despite their struggles, Burnley have found the back of the net in 10 of their past 12 Premier League encounters on their travels, and the 17/10 on offer at bet365 for a Chelsea Win & Both Teams to Score appeals to me.

Placing this via the bet builder will mean the Early Payout offer is available.

Chelsea vs Burnley Betting Tips & Predictions
Joao Pedro to Score Anytime
11/10
William Hill
Chelsea to Win & Both Teams to Score
17/10
Bet365
Further Reading
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