The Bundesliga’s most significant rivalry from the past three years will be renewed this weekend, as Bayern Munich host Bayer Leverkusen in the highlight of Round 9.
The Bavarians extended their record for the most consecutive wins at the start of a season to 14 with their 4-1 win over Koln in the DFB Pokal mid-week. At the same time, they now hold the record for most wins at the start of a Bundesliga campaign and the most goals after eight rounds with 30.
Having lost only twice in the last 25 Bundesliga home matches, Bayern Munich should feel confident they will finally end their bad streak of results against Bayer Leverkusen. As for Die Werkself, they were forced to play 120 minutes against 2. Bundesliga’s Paderborn, who also played with 10 men after the 60th minute.
Until the 96th minute, Leverkusen were losing 2-1, but managed to score three goals in the final 15 to win 4-2 after extra time. With this win, Bayer Leverkusen remained undefeated on the domestic stage under Kasper Hjulmand, but the problems in defence remain just as evident, which is a worrying fact ahead of this clash.
How the bookies view it: Extreme home advantage
Bayern Munich will always be favourites at home, but we haven’t seen such a gap in the odds for a match against Leverkusen in years. Bookmakers rule out Die Werkself’s chances almost entirely, giving them 17/2 to win at the Allianz Arena. Bayern Munich are available at 1/4, and the draw has been priced at 6/1.
Recent head-to-head: Leverkusen are unbeaten since 2022
No team has caused more problems to Bayern Munich than Bayer Leverkusen over the course of the last three campaigns. While the Bavarians obliterated them in the Champions League 1/8 finals last season, Bayern have not beaten Leverkusen in the Bundesliga since September 2022.
Since then, Die Werkself are unbeaten in six, with three wins and three draws in the process. Both league games last season ended level, so Vincent Kompany will be hopeful that his team’s unbelievable form will be enough to change the narrative.
Players to watch: How do you stop Harry Kane?
At this point, Harry Kane’s goals feel almost inevitable. After failing to score for only the second time this season against Monchengladbach last week, Kane bounced back with a brace against FC Koln, making it 24 goals across 14 games for Bayern this season.
As usual, the odds are not ideal at 1/2, but Betano have alternative options like Kane to score first at 12/5 or 2+ shots on target at 13/20. He also scored the first goal in the last two matches against Bayer Leverkusen.
Probable line-ups
Bayern Munich: Neuer, Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Guerreiro, Pavlovic, Kimmich, Olise, Gnabry, Diaz, Kane
Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken, Quansah, Bade, Tapsoba, Grimaldo, Andrich, Garcia, Arthur, Hofmann, Poku, Schick
Anything else catch the eye?
While Leverkusen stopped Bayern in the last few Bundesliga encounters, it was never them who dictated the games. The last few positive H2Hs were the result of 90 minutes of defending, goals from counter-attacks, and a lot of luck. The last two clashes in the Champions League were completely different, however, with Bayern winning both legs with 5-0 on aggregate.
With 4+ goals scored in three out of four Bundesliga home games this season and Bayer Leverkusen’s defensive struggles, we anticipate a 15th win of the season for the hosts. Die Werkself should work their way to a goal at some point, but Bayern should be the team that dominates.
GambleAware