Judging by Champions League history, it should be impossible for Atalanta to overcome the five-goal deficit from the first leg. It is far more likely that Bayern Munich will set another record for goals scored, following last week’s six.
Given that no team has ever come back from a deficit of more than four goals after a first leg, the Bavarians can feel confident about advancing.
Following their exceptional performance in Europe, their weekend game against Bayer Leverkusen did not go according to plan, as Bayern received two red cards and had two goals disallowed.
It will be interesting to see how fired up they’ll be against Atalanta, but given their 14 home wins in 16 matches this season (D1, L1), we can expect more of the same.
Atalanta, meanwhile, had a no less difficult match against Inter over the weekend, also ending in a draw, but the downside is that this was their fifth consecutive match without a win.
The only positive in recent weeks has been the impressive number of goals La Dea have been scoring. But even with their high scoring rate, their defense is too weak to secure a result.
How the bookies view it: Back-to-back dominant wins for the Bavarians
As expected, the bookmakers don’t see this match ending any other way than with a home win, as Bayern’s advantage in the odds is massive.
For now, you can back Bayern Munich at 3/10, while Atalanta are priced at 17/2. If you think the visitors have a chance to at least avoid defeat, you can back the draw at 9/2.
Recent head-to-head: One-sided is an understatement
Last week's match was the first ever between Bayern Munich and Atalanta, and it was a complete blowout. Bayern were already leading 3-0 at halftime, and by the 67th minute, the score was 6-0.
Atalanta did score a goal, but it came in the final minute of stoppage time, when Bayern were simply playing out the match. Throughout the regular 90 minutes, La Dea never looked like a team with a fighting chance.
Players to watch: Diaz will be fired up after the weekend
Michael Olise was the star of the first match with his two goals and an assist. He’s always a great choice for any Bayern game.
However, we’re going to focus on one of the team’s other new stars – Luis Diaz. The 29-year-old Colombian played one of his weakest matches of the season against Bayer Leverkusen, even though he scored the equalizer.
That doesn’t change the fact that he received a red card, but that’s exactly why we expect him to be highly motivated for the Champions League match. Given that he has eight goals and four assists in his last 10 appearances, one can never be wrong about backing Diaz.
Probable line-ups
Bayern Munich: Prescott, Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Bischof, Kimmich, Pavlovic, Olise, Musiala, Diaz, Kane
Atalanta: Carnesecchi, Zappacosta, Hien, Kolasinac, Bernasconi, Sulemana, De Roon, Pasalic, Zalewski, Krstovic, Scamacca
Anything else catch the eye?
Goals are definitely the best bet in this match, and there are plenty of reasons why.
Let’s start with the fact that Bayern Munich have played nine Champions League matches this season, and eight of them featured at least three goals. Add to that the fact that Atalanta have conceded the second-most goals in the tournament out of all remaining sides.
Furthermore, the five-goal lead will allow the Bavarians to play more relaxed, which will likely open up the match for even more goals. For colour, both teams have had BTTS in eight of their last 10 matches.
Last but not least, Bayern Munich have an interesting problem—all three of their goalkeepers are injured. In all likelihood, 16-year-old Leonard Prescott will be in goal, which will be a huge advantage for Atalanta, and we can expect them to score.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
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