Bayer Leverkusen’s back-to-back league defeats left them stranded far from the summit and at risk of losing their Top 4 position, but FC Koln’s deteriorating form creates a solid opportunity for Die Werkself to return to the winning column.
The last couple of weeks saw Bayer Leverkusen fail on multiple fronts, leaving them behind schedule in the Bundesliga and the Champions League. Kasper Hjulmand’s men lost back-to-back Bundesliga games against Borussia Dortmund and Augsburg, and then picked up a draw against Newcastle in the UCL.
With four league defeats, Die Werkself have now lost more times this season than in the previous two campaigns combined. Clearly, the crowded schedule is taking its toll, as Leverkusen have been playing a match every three days for the past month.
Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in the last 16 matches against newly-promoted teams in the Bundesliga, but FC Koln have been far more competitive than anticipated, and could present a threat to that streak.
The Billy Goats had a sensational season start, but the last few weeks saw them fail in four consecutive Bundesliga games, which put a huge dent on their European ambitions. FC Koln are now six points behind the Top 6, and the only positive lately has been the fact they score goals in every game.
How the bookies view it: Leverkusen will show their true strength
Bookmakers believe it is time for Bayer Leverkusen to step up to the occasion and start winning again. You can currently back the hosts at 11/20, while FC Koln are available at 17/4.
Recent head-to-head: Three in a row for Die Werkself
Bayer Leverkusen have dominated this rivalry over the past few seasons, while their most recent encounter was in the DFB Pokal last season, when Die Werkself won 3-2 after extra-time.
Other than that, Leverkusen have won seven of the last 10 H2Hs, while scoring 2+ goals in eight of those games. FC Koln have two wins in that period, but both were away from home, which is something to consider.
Players to watch: Grimaldo is a striker in disguise
It is slightly unusual for a defender to be a team’s most efficient player, but Alejandro Grimaldo continues to be the key ingredient for Bayer Leverkusen’s success. Most recently, he scored the late equaliser against Newcastle in the Champions League.
With this, he now has nine goals and six assists across all competitions, which is the most in the team. And he has four goal contributions across the last five competitive games. He also has three goal contributions in the last three H2Hs with FC Koln.
Backed a player to find the net? Check our Goalscorer Betting guide to see how the markets work and where to find value.
Probable line-ups
Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken, Andrich, Bade, Tapsoba, Hofmann, Maza, Garcia, Grimaldo, Tillman, Poku, Schick
FC Koln: Schwabe, Sebulonsen, Martel, van den Berg, Thielmann, Krauss, Huseinbasic, Kaminski, Bulter, Mala, Waldschmidt
Anything else catch the eye?
The last few H2Hs have had similarities, like the fact eight of the last 10 featured at least three goals. Moreover, Koln’s last six matches have featured goals from both teams, which is something we expect too.
Bayer Leverkusen should be able to claim the three points eventually, but FC Koln will not go down without a fight, and the hosts have evident defensive problems.
The Billy Goats are also second in the league in corners given in away games, as they concede an average of 8.29 per match. Therefore, if the visitors resort to full on defence for the better part of the game, we can expect Leverkusen to take a considerable number of corners.
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