AS Roma host Stuttgart in the penultimate Europa League round, as the two teams sit side by side in the league table, and are a point away from the top eight.
Not only do the Wolves and the Swabians have the same number of wins, but they also share an identical sequence of results. Both teams lost two of their first three games and now have three consecutive wins in the tournament.
Even their goal differences are close, which contributes to expectations of a very competitive match. More importantly, both teams can boast good form in the period since their last match in Europe.
Roma have won three of their last four matches without conceding a goal, while Stuttgart are unbeaten in six consecutive matches.
For the Swabians in particular, it should be noted that they've won four of their last five away games, including their last Europa League match with an impressive 4-0 victory.
And here is a curious fact – AS Roma have not had a single draw this season across all competitions, and this will be their 29th fixture. Their performances have been a hit or miss all season, and they clearly don’t enjoy sharing points.
How the bookies view it: Did they underestimate the Swabians?
The Swabians are probably in better overall form, given their recent results and the level of their opponents compared to Roma's, but the bookmakers still give the Italian team a significant advantage.
At this point, you can back Roma at around 19/20, while Stuttgart are available at 13/5. We have already mentioned that the hosts are not fond of draws, but you still have that option at 14/5.
Recent head-to-head: A new and exciting rivalry
Considering that Stuttgart had not participated in UEFA tournaments for over 15 years until recently, it is not surprising that they have not faced Roma in the past. This will be the first clash between the two teams.
However, we can say that the Swabians have only beaten Italian teams twice in 11 attempts, so they will certainly need to prepare well.
Players to watch: Undav has found his old form
AS Roma’s attack this season has been an enigma, as the team practiced an extremely defensive football until recently, so few players have really had a chance to shine. At this point, we wouldn’t risk any picks.
When it comes to Stuttgart, however, Deniz Undav definitely deserves more attention. The 29-year-old is back to his old form and already has 18 goal contributions across 21 appearances this season (G12, A6).
Probable line-ups
AS Roma: Svilar, Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso, Rensch, Cristante, Kone, Wesley, Dybala, Pellegrini, Ferguson
Stuttgart: Nubel, Assignon, Hendriks, Chabot, Mittelstadt, Stiller, Karazor, Leweling, Undav, Fuhrich, Demirovic
Anything else catch the eye?
This is a curious pair, as while their form may be similar, the number of goals in their games has been totally the opposite. Almost all of Stuttgart’s recent fixtures featured goals from both sides and Over 2.5.
In Roma’s case, four of their last five matches featured fewer than three goals. In three out of five, they had a clean sheet. But given the importance of this match and the Wolves’ visible improvement in the final third, we can expect a more action-packed clash.
However, we fancy Stuttgart’s odds and plan to take advantage of the crazy value. The Swabians took out the likes of Bayer Leverkusen and Eintracht Frankfurt in recent weeks, and did it in style.
This is a high-risk play, but their form makes us believe in those 13/5 odds, and it gets even better if you throw a BTTS in the picture.
Think both sides will find the net? Our BTTS Masterclass explains how to spot the fixtures where goals are a given.
GambleAware