With Inter Milan winning their early fixture on Friday, AC Milan have no other option but to beat an AS Roma side that boasts the best defence in the top leagues and is desperate for a place in Europe.
Gian Piero Gasperini has created something special at AS Roma – a team that is not only flawless defensively, but also effective in the final third. The Giallorossi conceded in only one of their last five matches, while winning the other four with clean sheets and an identical 2-0.
There is a feeling that Roma sacrificed Coppa Italia this season to focus on the other fronts, given that they got eliminated by Torino, whom they crushed five days later in the league.
Their title ambitions may be gone, but the Wolves look determined to lock in a place in the Champions League. To do that, they have to overcome one of the toughest challenges Serie A has to offer.
AC Milan have only lost once this season, and it happened in the very first round against newcomers Cremonese. Other than that, the Rossoneri have found success almost everywhere, as they remain the only Serie A team that’s undefeated on the road.
How the bookies view it: As close as a real derby match
Bookmakers found this to be the toughest fixture to predict in Matchday 22, as the odds for both sides are almost identical. There is no real favourite here, and the odds suggest a draw as the most likely outcome.
With this said, you can currently back AS Roma at around 17/10, while AC Milan’s odds revolve around 19/10. As mentioned, everyone expects a draw, as it is priced at just 2/1, which is extremely rare.
Recent head-to-head: AC Milan's favourite rival
The Rossoneri are certainly looking forward to this match more than any other against the teams at the top of the table, and with good reason.
Historically, AC Milan have more wins against this opponent than against any other team in the elite – 80 out of 181 matches played. For comparison, Roma have 46 wins, leaving a total of 55 draws.
In recent years, we have not seen any improvement, with Roma winning only three of their last 10 home games against this opponent. We are definitely in for an exciting clash.
Players to watch: Malen is ready to change his life
AS Roma’s new striker on loan, Donyell Malen, is clearly more than ready for the new challenge, as he scored on his debut last week. The 27-year-old Dutchman will once again lead the Wolves, and we can imagine him having an impact again, especially with Roma’s injury problems.
As for the Rossoneri, Massimiliano Allegri gave Christopher Nkunku some time off in the previous round, only subbing him on in the 86th minute. The Frenchman scored three goals in his last four appearances, so it was probably planned to keep him rested for the derby.
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Probable line-ups
AS Roma: Svilar, Mancini, Ndicka, Rensch, Celik, Kone, Cristante, Wesley, Soule, Dybala, Malen
AC Milan: Maignan, Pavlovic, Tomori, Gabbia, Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi, Pulisic, Leao
Anything else catch the eye?
Regardless of the outcome, most of the recent H2Hs have been thrilling and goal-packed. Eight of the last 10 featured goals from both teams. The last nine in a row at Stadio Olimpico also saw both teams score. This is something to consider, given the high stakes in this fixture.
An interesting fact is that AS Roma have not had a single draw this season in all competitions, and they’ve already played 29 fixtures. The Wolves actually were the better team on the pitch in the reverse fixture despite losing it 1-0, and their current form seems a little better than AC Milan’s.
There is value if you back either side, and this is one of those difficult fixtures that could go either way. But we like AS Roma’s chances here for a 2-1 win, for example.
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