Algeria v Austria
Algeria

Algeria vs Austria

, KO: 03:00 , Kansas City Stadium
Austria

Algeria and Austria have had almost identical World Cup campaigns so far and they now slug it out for second place in Group J.

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Both teams have lost out to Argentina and edged a victory against Jordan, although Austria's superior goal difference means they just need a draw in this game to finish as runners-up.

Ralf Rangnick's side caught the eye at Euro 2024 with their high-intensity pressing game but they look a weaker side two years on with Marko Arnautovic now 37 and Christoph Baumgartner missing out with injury.

A lack of cutting edge cost them in the 2-0 defeat to Argentina and they will now need to find a way to see off the Algerians.

The North African side came into the World Cup in excellent form, losing just once in 18 games, but flopped as Lionel Messi's hat-trick condemned them to a 3-0 loss in the Group J opener.

It looked like they would slump to another defeat when Jordan took the lead on matchday two but Algeria rallied to claim a 2-1 victory.

That has left them on the brink of the knockout stages and a point in the final match would pretty much guarantee them a slot in the last 32.

How the bookies view it: Austrians with the edge

Austria have looked a bit more accomplished than the Algerians so far and Bet365 make them 13/8 favourites. A win for the North Africans pays 14/5 and the draw is just 27/20 as that would send both teams through.

Players to watch: Sabitzer a threat from midfield

Five of Marcel Sabitzer's six goals this season have come for his country rather than his club. The Dortmund midfielder could step up again and is also the man who delivers most of their set-pieces. That makes him decent value for a goal or assist at 15/8 with Bet365.

Amine Gouiri bundled home Algeria's winner against Jordan and will be a key man again. The Marseille striker is also 15/8 to score or assist.

Probable line-ups

It will be interesting to see if Rangnick throws Arnautovic on from the start after two appearances from the bench.

Ramiz Zerrouki and Hicham Bouaddi face being dropped for Algeria after being hooked at half-time against Jordan.

Austria: X Schlager, Posch, Alaba, Lienhart, Mwene, Laimer, X Schlager, Seiwald, Sabitzer, Schmid, Arnautovic.

Algeria: Zidane, Mandi, Ait-Nouri, Belghali, Bensebaini, Bentaleb, Mahrez, Chaibi, Benbouali, Maza, Gouiri.

🔍 X-pert tip from The Betting Desk
Don't know your xG from your xP? We've got you covered with our data-led X-pert tip!

MFT's X-pert tip: Over 2.5 goals

Algeria and Austria both begin the final round of Group J on three points, making this the decisive match in the battle for second place. If Argentina beat Jordan, the winner will progress and could even top the group depending on goal difference.

Algeria moved into contention with a 1.89 expected goals performance in their victory over Jordan, while Austria have created 2.22 expected goals across their opening two matches despite defeat to Argentina. Ralf Rangnick's side continue to play with their usual aggressive pressing style and carry a slight edge on the updated Elo ratings, 1841 to Algeria's 1780, equating to a 43.8% win probability.

Islam Slimani leads Algeria's attack. Marcel Sabitzer and Paul Wanner give Austria creativity between the lines, while Xaver Schlager and Nicolas Seiwald provide the midfield base. With both teams needing victory and neither expected to sit back, this has the ingredients for an open contest. The model projects 3.94 expected goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring.

Anything else catch the eye?

Austria were involved in one of the great World Cup carve-ups as they lost 1-0 to West Germany in 1982, a result that saw both sides go through.

With a point enough to secure a place in the knockouts for Austria and Algeria, this game could also be less than competitive, although certainly not in the same blatantly obvious way as 44 years ago.

That's why the draw is such a short price on the World Cup betting apps and the half-time stalemate also appeals at 20/21.

Austria are likely to do most of the attacking so there might be a bit of value in backing them at -1 in the corner handicap. That pays 6/4 at Bet365.

Algeria vs Austria Betting Tips & Predictions
Half-time draw
20/21
Bet365
Marcel Sabitzer goal or assist
15/8
Bet365
Austria -1 corner handicap
6/4
Bet365
Further Reading
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