With just weeks remaining in the National League season, the pressure is mounting at both ends of the table — and this weekend’s fixtures promise plenty of drama, goals, and betting value.
Aldershot Town host bottom-side Ebbsfleet United in a must-win clash as they look to tighten their grip on mid-table safety and keep slim play-off hopes alive. Ebbsfleet, meanwhile, are fighting for survival and running out of time.
Altrincham welcome high-flying Barnet, who are charging toward a return to the Football League. Altrincham have struggled for consistency lately and face a huge test against a Barnet side in red-hot form.
Elsewhere, out-of-form Gateshead aim to steady the ship against a resurgent Tamworth, who have quietly crept into the play-off conversation with an impressive recent run.
We break down each of these key fixtures and highlight where the best betting angles lie ahead of another action-packed weekend in the National League.
Aldershot Town vs Ebbsfleet United
Aldershot Town likely need just a couple more wins to fully secure their National League status for another season. Their current record of W11-D13-L12 puts them in 14th place, nine points clear of the relegation zone. While there are still several teams below them, the gap to 21st-placed Boston United means relegation is increasingly unlikely.
Going forward, Aldershot have impressed, scoring 55 goals — only five sides have scored more. Defensively, though, it's a different story: they have conceded 57 goals, with just five teams allowing more. At home, their record stands at W7-D7-L4, with a notable 66% of those matches finishing over 2.5 goals. They have managed just three clean sheets at home and failed to score in six, though all of those goalless outings came against top-half teams, including Barnet and York (currently 1st and 2nd).
Defensive issues persist — Aldershot have kept just one clean sheet in their last 20 games, and only three in their last 18 at home. Both teams have scored in eight of Aldershot's last nine home matches, which have averaged a high 3.89 total goals, with Aldershot netting 2.22 goals per game in that stretch. They have scored 2+ goals in eight of their last nine home fixtures, so they will fancy their chances against bottom-of-the-table Ebbsfleet United.
Ebbsfleet have endured a nightmare season. Their record stands at W2-D11-L25, with a staggering 80 goals conceded — an average of 2.11 per game. Their two wins came against struggling AFC Fylde (23rd) and mid-table Hartlepool (15th). On the road, they are winless with a W0-D5-L14 record. They have scored in eight away games but kept just two clean sheets, and have conceded 2+ goals in 15 of their 19 away matches (2.53 per game on average).
Ebbsfleet have shown some signs of life in attack recently, scoring in four of their last five away games, and even against sides in the top half, they have managed to find the net — scoring in seven of nine away games vs teams 12th and below.
There’s no value in backing Aldershot outright at 1.45, or even to score 2+ goals at 1.51. The same goes for Aldershot to win and over 1.5 goals (1.70). However, Aldershot to Win & Both Teams to Score at 3.00 looks like an excellent play.
Aldershot are in strong scoring form and have consistently netted multiple goals at home, but their leaky defence continues to let them down. Given Ebbsfleet’s recent ability to at least grab a goal — even in defeat — this bet offers the best mix of value and probability.
- Best Bet: Aldershot to Win & Both Teams to Score at 3.00 with Skybet
Altrincham vs Barnet
Barnet are flying. Unbeaten since a 3-1 defeat away at second-placed York on October 22nd, they have gone on an incredible run, posting a record of W16-D7-L0 since that loss. During that stretch, they have conceded just 13 goals (0.57 per game) while averaging 2.09 goals scored per match.
Their recent form has been even more dominant: 11 wins from their last 12 league fixtures, scoring an average of 2.42 goals per game and conceding just 0.17. They have kept five consecutive clean sheets, and in this 12-game spell have only conceded twice — one of those in a 3-1 win over York City.
While Barnet’s away record against the current top six is less convincing (W1-D1-L3), their overall form is so exceptional that it’s hard to look past them here, especially against an Altrincham side whose momentum has stalled.
Altrincham hold a home record of W8-D6-L4, but their only home win against a top-six opponent came in a 3-0 victory over York. They sit just one point outside the play-offs but have played more games than 7th-placed Rochdale, and recent form has been a major concern.
The hosts have now lost their last three league matches and managed just one win from their last five. At home, they have lost their last two games — against 23rd-placed Aldershot and 14th-placed AFC Fylde — and have picked up just two home wins from their last six. Worryingly for Altrincham, only three sides have collected fewer points over the last five games. In contrast, Barnet have won five out of five in that span, all without conceding a single goal.
Backing Barnet to win at 1.75 looks like excellent value on its own given their form, but there is even more upside in combining it with Under 4.5 Goals at 2.20.
Of Barnet’s 11 most recent wins, only one has featured over 4.5 goals — a 5-0 home win over Yeovil. Meanwhile, Altrincham’s home matches this season have averaged just 2.53 goals, and they have generally been solid defensively, conceding just 0.82 goals per game at home. Notably, none of their 17 home games have featured five or more goals.
With Barnet sitting 11 points clear of York in second and just eight games remaining, a win here would all but seal their return to the Football League.
- Best Bet: Barnet to Win & Under 4.5 Goals at 2.20 with Betway
Gateshead vs Tamworth
Gateshead are a side trending in the wrong direction. Currently sitting 6th in the National League with a record of W17-D9-L12, they look unlikely to finished second or third and give themselves a better route to the play off final and are now more focused on solidifying their play-off spot. That position is under threat, though, with Altrincham just five points behind in 8th — and with a game in hand.
Form has been a major concern. Gateshead are winless in their last five matches, losing the last three. They have now gone eight games without a clean sheet, and only six teams in the division have picked up fewer points over their last eight fixtures.
In contrast, Tamworth are pushing in the opposite direction. With 13 points from their last eight games, they have emerged as dark horses for a play-off push — now just five points behind 7th-placed Rochdale.
At home, Gateshead hold a record of W10-D3-L6. They have kept five clean sheets in 19 home matches, but three of those came against teams in 18th or lower. They have also failed to score in four games at home — three of which came against sides currently in the top eight.
Tamworth’s away record is W6-D4-L9. They have kept just two clean sheets on the road, but have failed to score in seven of those 19 away matches. Crucially, six of those seven blanks came against sides in the top 10.
That said, Tamworth have hit a strong run of attacking form, scoring in each of their last 11 league games, and finding the net in 13 of their last 14 — the only exception being a defeat to league leaders Barnet. On the road, they have lost just once in their last seven (W3-D3-L1), scoring in all seven, though they have managed only one clean sheet in that stretch — against 20th-placed Wealdstone.
With both teams regularly finding the net and Gateshead struggling for form and defensive solidity, there’s a strong case for goals here. Both teams to score alone is a little short in the market, but combining it with Over 2.5 Goals offers a more attractive price and reflects the attacking trends on both sides.
- Best Bet: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 with Bet365
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