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Week 10 of the NFL season is here and today is the day for the international game in Germany, where some unfortunate souls will get the “pleasure” of watching the Giants and the Panthers, quite possibly the worst matchup of the season on paper.
Bryce Young gets the start for the Panthers, as he probably will do for the remainder of the season. I'm not expecting it to be a good game, but having another timeslot filled with NFL is something I probably shouldn't be complaining about.
It was an average slate overall, with the highlight coming in SNF with the Lions taking on the Texans. Annoyingly, there are a lot of 3.5- and 4-point spreads around on the slate, which I generally try to avoid, but I do think a few teams are still being undervalued.
NFL tips week 10: Best Spread – Bills -4 @ Colts
The 7-2 Bills travel to Indianapolis to take on the 4-5 Colts, looking to make it five wins in a row and keep their four-win gap at the top of the AFC East, where all other challengers have fallen away.
It’s been a good October for Josh Allen and the Bills, with wins against the Jets, Titans, Seahawks and Dolphins, scoring 30 points in the most recent of those three. They are sitting pretty in the AFC East, knowing that it’s essentially theirs once more, so they brought in Amari Cooper to help bolster their shallow WR group.
He has missed the last couple of weeks, but his return this week is well-timed with Keon Coleman out and Mack Hollins both banged up. They run the ball very well, with James Cook supported by Ty Johnson and Ray Davis, and their defense tends to get enough done to let Allen use his mobility to extend drives.
This is as much about how poor the Colts are both on and off the field as it is about the Bills being good. The Colts are starting Joe Flacco for the second week running despite Anthony Richardson being healthy, as they believe it gives them the best chance to succeed.
Maybe it does, but 10% more than no chance is still pretty much no chance and that’s where they are at the moment. In limbo knowing they won’t be challenging this year, but not bad enough to sneak into the top five in the draft.
NFL betting tips: Best total – Miami v LAR o50
Tua Tagovailoa has returned from another concussion and breathed a little life into the Dolphins offense, admittedly it’s not helped them win games as they’ve lost both but have scored 27 in each of them. I expect there to be a similar story in this game as the Rams defensive unit is “sub-par” and although they can get pressure with Jared Verse looking like he’ll be DROY, their secondary is poor and Tua and Tyreek should be able to attack it.
The Rams are nearly back to full health and welcome back a couple of their starting OL to help give Matthew Stafford more protection this week which will help the passing and running games and Puka gets another week of training coming off his knee injury, hopefully, he’ll make it to at least half-time this week after getting kicked out of the game for throwing a punch last week.
I’m expecting both teams to be able to score quite freely, and this to end with 60+.
NFL betting tips: Best TD scorer – Jalen Hurts – 11/10
I am a little shocked that someone who has scored four over the last two games is still a small shade of plus-money. I was expecting him to be on the other side of Evens in this one and closer to the 4/7 available for Saquon Barkley.
The Eagles are over a touchdown favourite going up against their divisional rival Dallas Cowboys, who will have a backup QB in charge of them with Dak Prescott heading to the IR.
I think it’s safe to assume things will go well for the Eagles. They’ll be able to control things, and we know that Jalen Hurts will probably get all 1-yard-to-go situations, including at the goal-line where he should find the endzone once more, especially as he’s now scoring proper rushing TDs in addition to the “tush-push” scores that the Eagles have become synonymous with over the past couple of years.
NFL tips: Best player prop – Darnell Mooney o53.5 receiving yards
The Falcons are sitting comfortably atop an easy division and look like they're set for a playoff run with Kirk Cousins running an offense that has been put together well with studs like Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but it's a lesser-praised WR I'm targeting here in Darnell Mooney.
With Drake London carrying a hip injury into this one, the ball may well have to go elsewhere, and Mooney has shown himself to be a reliable target this year and has hit at least 80 yards in both games over the past fortnight.
This week he gets to face a Saints team who are looking to rebuild and this week off loaded they're best defensive player with Marshon Lattimore going to the Commanders, that means he'll be getting softer coverage than predicted and I think he'll have another good game.
If you are looking for more value in the betting market aside from our NFL tips, why not check out some of our other predictions so we can bash the bookies together?
Upcoming match previews & tips
- Sun 12:30 Sheffield Utd vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Sun 14:00 Manchester United vs Leicester City
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- Sun 14:00 Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
- Sun 15:00 Kilmarnock v Celtic
- Sun 16:30 Chelsea v Arsenal
- Sun 17:30 Rangers vs Hearts
- Sun 20:45 Inter Milan vs Napoli
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Racing Tips
After a winner on Saturday, Rizzel is back with two picks for Sandown in the Sunday racing.
