The drift on Absurde was very alarming, but he didn't run terribly.
I think it's now very safe to say that Absurde's best years are behind him, especially on the flat. That should have been a race that he'd win by as much as he'd like, but he clearly is on the downgrade. He ran better than he has previously done for a very long time, so he can still win races, but I think Class 1 races and big handicaps are off the table.
Golden Pharaoh was under the pump a long way from home, and even with his best efforts to stay with the group, he wasn't able to. He was a little keen in the early stages, but it didn't really affect his chances of winning when you look at the distance he lost by.
Luna Celeste 15/8 – Newmarket 4.10
Despite the 4.10 pm race being a small field event, it's a pretty interesting race. Surely, we're getting 15/8 on Luna Celeste with concerns about the ground, as I think she is the one they have to beat.
She has done nothing but improve all season long, and her performances have gotten better with every run. She is in fantastic form, and I believe that she will be fine on the ground at Newmarket. It is currently good to soft, and they are going to get little bits of rain, but I don't think it'll make it bottomless. Based on her pedigree, she should be fine on the ground, as both sides of the pedigree performed well on a similar surface.
Previous is an interesting runner in the race, but I'd have imagined the price would have been shorter if she was ready after 354 days off the track. It's still early days, and the money can still arrive, so I'd monitor that. The Brian Ellison horse was impressive at York last time out, but she did drop to an appealing mark, and that was her first win on turf in 15 attempts. Now she is running off a higher mark, and against some solid opposition, I think she'll struggle.
Small Fry 11/2 – Geelong 6.10am
Outside of the Melbourne Cup, I don't really dabble in Australian racing, but I couldn't help myself from getting involved with Joseph O'Brien's Small Fry in the Geelong Cup.
Since moving from Gary Moore to Joseph O'Brien, this horse has improved massively. I have tipped him up a couple of times this year, and he was most recently a winner at York over two miles. This race is over 1m 4f, but it doesn't concern me as much as it would have done if this were a premier handicap in the UK over this trip.
The middle-distance horses in Australia are not on the same level as the UK/Europe horses, so I think Small Fry has a fantastic chance of landing this before having a crack at the Melbourne Cup. He clearly has the gears for a trip like this, as he does cruise into his races over further. He was unlucky at Glorious Goodwood, and probably should have won if he got a clear run. He did make amends for that by winning a nice handicap the time after.
The form of his Goodwood run was boosted, as the winner went on to finish second in the Ebor.
GambleAware