The upcoming round of the Champions League features a clash that deserves to be a final, given that, on paper, PSG and Barcelona are perhaps the two strongest teams in the world. Luis Enrique is once again facing his former club, having beaten them convincingly on the last two occasions.
The Parisians’ slow start to the season can, to some extent, be attributed to a lack of pre-season preparation among most of their players. But they need no excuses, having returned to their dominant form and going into this match on the back of six consecutive wins.
At the weekend, they came from 1-0 down to beat Strasbourg 3-1 away from home, whilst a week ago they gave Manchester City a reality check by beating them 4-2.
Meanwhile, Barcelona’s form is hard to put into words, having won their 11th consecutive match, whilst their overall statistics show they have scored 48 goals since the start of the season.
At the weekend, they also equalled a club record by scoring three or more goals in their ninth consecutive match. No team has a stronger attack at the moment, but we certainly cannot say the same about their defence.
Barca have failed to keep a clean sheet in 17 consecutive Champions League matches, and Hansi Flick has the worst goals-conceded ratio in the competition with Barcelona of any manager in the club’s history.
How the bookies view it: There is no favourite here
There are only a handful of teams against whom Barcelona could be considered underdogs away from home.
Originally, the bookmakers had made PSG favourites here, but following the movement in the odds over the last few days, the two teams are now priced the same.
Both PSG and Barcelona are currently available at 29/20, whilst a draw is priced at 16/5.
Recent head-to-head: Six wins apiece in the UCL
This is one of the most fiercely contested rivalries in the Champions League over the past 15 years. They have faced each other 16 times in the competition, with 14 of those encounters taking place in the last 15 years.
Unsurprisingly, the head-to-head record between them is perfectly even, with six wins apiece, whilst four matches have ended in a draw.
What is more significant at the moment is that PSG have suffered just one defeat in their last five encounters. A year ago, they met at Camp Nou at the same stage of the competition, and the Parisians won 2–1.
Players to watch: Raphinha is back and ready
Ousmane Dembele seems to be finding his form after a somewhat slow start to the season. He scored two goals and provided two assists in PSG’s last two matches. He has scored twice against his former club, Barcelona, whilst at PSG, and will certainly be keen to punish them once again.
On the other side, Lamine Yamal once again stands out, continuing to rack up goals and assists; he already has a total of 19 for Barcelona in 11 matches. If we include his statistics for Spain, he has a total of 13 goals and 10 assists since the start of the season.
Raphinha will also return from injury for the match against PSG, having scored 14 goals in his first nine matches of the season for Barcelona.
Probable line-ups
Paris Saint-Germain: Safonov, Mendes, Pacho, Marquinhos, Hakimi, Vitinha, Ruiz, Neves, Kvaratskhelia, Dembele, Doue
Barcelona: Garcia, Cancelo, Martin, Cubarsi, Kounde, Pedri, Rodri, Gordon, Lopez, Yamal, Raphinha
Anything else catch the eye?
PSG and Barcelona are the two teams with the highest-scoring matches in the Champions League over the last three seasons. And right now, neither side is exactly renowned for their defensive play. Not to mention that they’ve never been the sort of teams to sit back and protect a lead.
I can’t see how this match won’t follow in the footsteps of previous encounters with plenty of goals. Eight of the last 10 meetings between PSG and Barcelona have seen goals at both ends or over 2.5 goals (or both).
Given these expectations, I reckon the 3/2 odds on both teams scoring in the first half are worth a bet. Separately, the 1/2 on Barcelona scoring at least two goals also appeals to me.
GambleAware