Besiktas welcome Crystal Palace to Istanbul on Thursday with their Europa League fixture kicking off at 20:00 UK time. The Turkish side have made an impressive start to their European campaign, while Palace arrive under considerable pressure following a humiliating Premier League defeat.
Besiktas have won both their opening Europa League fixtures, beating Marseille 4-1 before securing a 3-2 victory over Hoffenheim. Those results have delivered six points and seven goals, with their underlying performances equally encouraging.
The Turkish side have generated 6.26 xG across those matches, averaging 3.13 per game while conceding 1.21 xGA. Their attacking production suggests they have deserved their impressive start. Their domestic statistics reinforce that assessment. Besiktas average 1.90 xG and just 0.78 xGA across seven Super Lig fixtures, giving them a positive xG difference of 1.12 per match.
Home advantage could prove particularly important. Besiktas have won all four recorded home league matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding three. They average 17.57 shots per league fixture, demonstrating their ability to sustain attacking pressure.
Crystal Palace arrive in considerably less convincing form, with head coach Pierre Sage facing mounting questions about his future. The Frenchman, appointed in June following an impressive spell at Lens, admitted uncertainty about his position after Sunday's 5-0 defeat against rivals Brighton.
Sage apologised to supporters and accepted responsibility for the performance. Reports suggest Thursday's European fixture and Sunday's home meeting with Newcastle United could be crucial in determining whether he remains in charge.
Palace have experienced contrasting fortunes in Europe. They opened with an emphatic 4-0 victory over Lech Poznan before suffering a 3-2 defeat against Lyon.
Their six European goals demonstrate their attacking capabilities, but the defensive statistics are concerning. Palace have conceded eight big chances across those fixtures, with opponents generating a combined 3.60 xG.
Their Premier League performances provide even greater cause for concern. Palace average just 1.17 xG while conceding 2.32 xGA per match, having allowed 16 goals across seven league fixtures. The Brighton defeat highlighted those weaknesses. Palace generated only 0.56 xG and registered one shot on target, while their opponents produced 2.41 xG and nine attempts on target.
The contrast between Besiktas's attacking form and Palace's defensive performances makes Thursday's fixture particularly interesting.
Besiktas will be without Milot Rashica, who is recovering from a muscle injury, while Orkun Kokcu is sidelined with a heel problem until early November. Kokcu's absence is significant given his involvement in the team's midfield, although Besiktas retain several attacking options capable of troubling Palace.
The visitors have their own availability concerns. Ben Chilwell and Takehiro Tomiyasu are doubtful, while goalkeeper Dean Henderson is also struggling with a foot injury. Chadi Riad remains sidelined with a long-term knee problem. Walter Benitez could therefore continue in goal, having started Palace's latest fixture.
How the bookies view it
Besiktas are favourites at 6/5, representing an implied probability of 45.5%. The draw is available at 3/1, carrying a 25% probability, while Crystal Palace are 11/5 to win, implying 31.3%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 7/12, representing a probability of 63.2%. Both teams to score is available at 1/2 for yes, implying a probability of 66.7%.
Head to head: First meeting between these two sides
There has been no previous competitive meetings between Besiktas and Crystal Palace.
Player to watch: Leandro Trossard main attacking influence for hosts
Leandro Trossard has established himself as an important attacking influence for Besiktas, combining a willingness to shoot with the creativity needed to unlock opposition defences.
The Belgian has played 565 minutes this season, scoring once and providing one assist. His underlying attacking numbers suggest he has been unfortunate not to contribute more goals, generating 1.74 xG from 25 shots, including seven on target.
Trossard has also been productive creatively, registering 1.51 xA and creating ten chances, including three big chances. His ability to both finish and create opportunities makes him particularly dangerous against a Crystal Palace defence that has struggled to contain opposition attacks.
His movement into dangerous areas is another encouraging feature. Trossard has recorded 43 touches inside the opposition penalty area, while completing 11 successful dribbles and winning 13 fouls. With Orkun Kokcu unavailable through injury, Trossard could assume greater attacking responsibility, particularly when operating behind Hyeon-gyu Oh.
Predicted lineups
Besiktas (4-2-3-1): Nubel; Murillo, Agbadou, Topcu, Ouattara; Ndidi, Fakili; Cerny, Trossard, Olaitan; Oh.
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1): Benitez; Canvot, Richards, Ahanor; Khalaili, Wharton, Timber, Mitchell; Kamada, Pino; Strand Larsen.
Anything else catch the eye?
Besiktas's attacking performances have been impressive across both domestic and European competition, and Crystal Palace's defensive weaknesses suggest the hosts should create opportunities throughout Thursday's contest.
The Turkish side have scored seven goals in their opening two Europa League fixtures, generating 6.26 xG. Their victories over Marseille and Hoffenheim demonstrate their ability to create chances against opponents from established European leagues.
Their domestic home record strengthens the argument. Besiktas have scored 12 goals across four Super Lig home matches, averaging three per fixture.
Palace's defensive performances make this a particularly appealing matchup. They have conceded 16 Premier League goals, with opponents generating an average of 2.32 xGA per game. Their European performances have offered little reassurance. Despite beating Lech Poznan comfortably, Palace allowed their opponents several promising opportunities before conceding twice against Lyon.
The latest defeat against Brighton raises further questions about their defensive organisation and confidence. Sage's side struggled to contain opposition attacks, and the pressure surrounding the manager could make another difficult away fixture particularly challenging.
There is some uncertainty surrounding Besiktas following Kokcu's injury, but their wider attacking performances suggest they retain enough quality to cause problems. Importantly, this selection does not depend on Besiktas winning. Palace have scored six goals in Europe and remain capable of threatening the hosts, even if their defensive record makes them difficult to support.
Besiktas's consistent attacking production, strong home performances and Palace's vulnerability provide a compelling case for the hosts finding the net at least twice.
GambleAware