Brighton travel to the Czech Republic on Thursday, looking to continue their impressive start to the UEFA Conference League. Fabian Hurzeler's side arrive following consecutive emphatic victories, although Jablonec's attacking performances suggest the hosts could provide a more competitive examination than their league position indicates.
Brighton opened their Conference League campaign with a 4-0 victory over Kauno Zalgiris, producing 4.02 xG from 35 shots, including nine on target and seven big chances. Their opponents were restricted to just 0.04 xG, underlining the Seagulls' control of the contest.
They followed that performance with a 5-0 Premier League victory over Crystal Palace, generating another 2.41 xG and registering nine shots on target. Brighton have therefore scored nine goals without reply across their last two matches.
Their wider Premier League record is equally encouraging. The Seagulls scored 18 goals across their opening six league fixtures, averaging three per match, while their attacking performances generated 12.00 xG.
Jablonec sit seventh in the Czech First League after 11 matches, winning five, drawing two and losing four. They have scored 14 goals and conceded 12, although their underlying attacking numbers are stronger than those results suggest.
The hosts average 1.79 xG per match, the fourth-highest figure in the division, but have converted their opportunities at a rate of just 1.27 goals per game. That difference suggests their attacking performances have deserved a greater return. Their home record provides further encouragement. Jablonec have scored in all six home league matches, registering ten goals, although three wins, one draw and two defeats demonstrate that they are far from unbeatable.
Defensively, they have conceded seven goals at home and kept just two clean sheets. Their recent form has also been inconsistent, with two victories, one draw and three defeats across their last six league fixtures.
Jablonec began their Conference League campaign with a 3-2 defeat away to Freiburg. They scored twice from 1.18 xG, but conceded 23 shots, nine on target and 1.87 xGA. Their ability to threaten stronger opposition was encouraging, although the number of opportunities allowed will concern their supporters.
Brighton have several injury problems, with Kaoru Mitoma, Yankuba Minteh, Mats Wieffer, Femi Azeez and Stefanos Tzimas among those sidelined. Evan Ferguson is also recovering from an ankle injury, while Zadok Yohanna remains unavailable.
Jablonec are expected to be without Lamin Jawo, Kevin-Prince Milla and Jan Suchan. Klemen Mihelak has returned to training but remains a fitness concern.
How the bookies view it
Brighton are 1/3 favourites, giving them an implied probability of 75%. Jablonec are available at 19/2, representing 9.5%, while the draw is 19/4, equivalent to 17.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 8/15, carrying an implied probability of 65.2%. Both teams to score is available at 13/14 for yes, representing an implied probability of 51.9%.
Head to head: First meeting between these two sides
There are no previous competitive meetings between Jablonec and Brighton.
Player to watch: Charalampos Kostoulas goalscoring threat for Brighton
Charalampos Kostoulas has established himself as an important attacking option for Brighton, contributing three goals and two assists in 487 minutes this season. The young forward has been particularly effective in front of goal, scoring three times from 1.83 xG and registering seven shots on target from 18 attempts.
His attacking involvement extends beyond finishing opportunities. Kostoulas has recorded 27 touches inside the opposition penalty area, created four chances and completed nine successful dribbles. He has also won possession 12 times in the final third, highlighting his willingness to press defenders and help Brighton regain possession in dangerous areas.
With Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh unavailable, Kostoulas is likely to retain an important role in Fabian Hurzeler's attacking plans. His movement inside the penalty area and ability to contribute both goals and assists could prove particularly valuable against a Jablonec defence that conceded 23 shots during its 3-2 defeat against Freiburg.
Brighton's recent attacking performances suggest Kostoulas should receive opportunities to add to his impressive early-season record.
Predicted lineups
Jablonec (4-2-3-1): Hanus; Cedidla, Tekijaski, Pavlovic, Sobol; Nebyla, Sedlacek; Kuol, Zorvan, Tchanturishvili; Rusek.
Brighton (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Kadioglu, Vuskovic, Dunk, Boscagli; Andres, Gross; Gomez, Ayari, De Cuyper; Kostoulas.
Anything else catch the eye
Both teams to score at 10/11 is an interesting selection, although Brighton's recent defensive performances make it a bet that requires caution.
Jablonec's home scoring consistency provides the strongest argument. They have found the net in all six home league fixtures, while their season-long average of 1.79 xG suggests they are creating better opportunities than their modest goals total indicates.
Their two goals away to Freiburg also demonstrate that they can threaten opponents from stronger leagues, even when they are not controlling the match.
Brighton's attacking strength makes the other half of the selection considerably easier to support. Their recent results suggest they should create opportunities against a Jablonec side that has kept clean sheets in only a third of its home league fixtures.
The concern is Brighton's defensive form. They have conceded just 0.60 xG combined across their last two matches, so Jablonec's domestic scoring record may not translate against this level of opposition.
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