Stuttgart welcome Atletico Madrid in the third round of the Champions League, with both teams looking to improve their poor record against sides from the opposing country.
Stuttgart were unlucky against Hamburger at the weekend, conceding a 1-0 defeat. They were the better side on the pitch, but their chances simply wouldn’t go in; perhaps they were a little distracted given the far more important Champions League match coming up.
Overall, the Reds haven’t been particularly consistent since the start of the campaign, but they are certainly a very difficult side to beat on their own turf.
Atletico Madrid are looking increasingly unbeatable after six consecutive wins in all competitions, and it’s striking that they’re conceding far fewer goals than usual.
A week ago, they beat Manchester United 2–0, but the last time they kept two consecutive clean sheets in the Champions League was in 2020.
Their form certainly counts for something, but the fact remains that Atletico have managed just one win in their last six away matches in the competition.
How the bookies view it: Atletico's form will make the difference
The odds are certainly interesting, despite Stuttgart’s strong home form. At the moment, they are well behind in the odds, standing at 23/10. Atletico Madrid are the betting favourites at 11/10, whilst a draw is priced at 13/5.
Recent head-to-head: A new Champions League rivalry
Stuttgart and Atletico Madrid have never faced each other in a competitive match. They have only played one friendly, which ended 1–1 in 2018.
There are far more interesting overall statistics. For example, Stuttgart have not won any of their last seven Champions League matches against Spanish sides, having lost five of them.
Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have lost each of their last five away matches in Germany. In other words, both teams have poor records from recent years to make up for.
Players to watch: Demirovic shines in the UCL
Ermedin Demirovic is far from his best form since the start of the season, with the exception of his Champions League matches. With four goals in two matches so far, he has already made his mark in the club’s history in the competition.
Alex Baena, meanwhile, has begun to fulfil his potential since joining Atletico a year ago and is now at the heart of their strong form. The 25-year-old Spaniard has already scored five goals and provided three assists for the team across all competitions.
Probable line-ups
Stuttgart: Bredlow, Mittelstadt, Chabot, Jeltsch, Promel, Stiller, Fuhrich, El Khannouss, Undav, Leweling, Demirovic
Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Llorente, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo, Baena, Cardoso, Barrios, Simeone, Alvarez, Lee
Anything else catch the eye?
Stuttgart are not to be underestimated, especially at home, but Atletico Madrid look far more impressive at the moment. They don’t always score a lot, but they control their matches and gradually wear down their opponents until the right moment comes.
I expect a very closely fought encounter, but I think it's worth backing Atletico Madrid. I'd be surprised, however, if Stuttgart didn't score, so if I had to pick a correct score, I'd certainly go for something like 2-1 to the visitors.
GambleAware