Ballon d’Or winner odds: Kane clear favourite to land the coveted prize

The 2026 Ballon d’Or is nearly upon us, with the shortlist confirmed last month.

The ceremony takes place in London on Monday, October 26, and last year’s winner, Ousmane Dembele, is among the nominees again.

At 100/1, though, the Frenchman is a long way behind the market leaders, so let’s look at the contenders most likely to pick up football’s biggest individual prize.

Harry Kane 4/11

Harry Kane’s odds continue to shorten, and he is now a heavy odds-on favourite at 4/11 to win the Ballon d’Or for the first time in his career.

The England captain scored a remarkable 61 goals in 51 appearances for Bayern Munich across all competitions last season, playing a major role in the German giants’ domestic double.

Kane was also one of England’s standout performers on their run to the World Cup semi-finals earlier this year, extending his lead as the country’s all-time leading goalscorer with six goals.

Kane is far more than a goalscorer, too. He has already set up six goals for Bayern across all competitions this season.

Odds of 4/11 offer next to no value, yet it is difficult to look past Kane as the red-hot favourite to land the gong.

Lamine Yamal 2/1

Lamine Yamal is Kane’s closest challenger at 2/1. He played a key part in Spain's World Cup triumph, though a return of just one goal didn’t match his Euro 2024 impact. Even so, he enjoyed an outstanding season with Barcelona, helping them win La Liga and the Spanish Super Cup while contributing 24 goals and 17 assists across all competitions.

The Spanish wonderkid looks destined to win the Ballon d’Or at some point in his career, but Kane may have the edge this time around.

Kylian Mbappe 12/1

Somewhat surprisingly, Kylian Mbappe is still waiting to win his first Ballon d’Or, and his 12/1 odds suggest he may have to wait at least another year to get his hands on the coveted award.

That price may underestimate his case, given the impressive season he enjoyed at Real Madrid last term, scoring 44 goals in 42 appearances. Mbappe also won the Champions League Golden Boot with 15 goals and the World Cup Golden Boot with 10 strikes as France reached the semi-finals.

However, a lack of silverware for club and country last season is likely to see the French superstar come up short again at this year’s ceremony.

Lionel Messi 20/1

Lionel Messi holds the record with eight Ballon d’Or wins, but odds of 20/1 suggest he is unlikely to claim a ninth award this time around.

The Argentina forward remains worthy of consideration after leading his country to another World Cup final and rolling back the years with eight goals. His odds would almost certainly be shorter had he led Argentina to back-to-back World Cup titles.

As it stands, though, his case appears to be based more on sentiment than recent achievements, as reflected by his lofty price.

Rodri 40/1

2024 winner Rodri has re-entered the conversation after playing a starring role in Spain’s World Cup triumph earlier this summer, which culminated in him receiving the Golden Ball award in North America.

Rodri was also an important figure for Manchester City when available, helping them complete an FA Cup and League Cup double last season. However, his involvement was stop-start, particularly during the first half of the campaign, which could hinder his chances of becoming a two-time Ballon d’Or winner.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 66/1

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia was a key figure in PSG’s back-to-back Champions League triumphs. However, Georgia missing out on the World Cup denied him a chance to shine on the international stage, and at 66/1 he faces an uphill Ballon d’Or battle.

MFT'S prediction

• Harry Kane

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