Wolverhampton Wanderers host Portsmouth at Molineux on Tuesday evening, with kick-off at 19:45. Wolves are strong favourites to secure their sixth Championship victory of the season, but Portsmouth arrive having won their last two matches and with an away record that suggests the visitors should not be underestimated.
Wolves have taken 17 points from their opening ten matches, scoring 18 goals and conceding 15. Their attacking performances have generally been encouraging, although defensive lapses and inconsistent finishing have contributed to three defeats.
Their latest victory came at Burnley, where Wolves recovered from consecutive losses to Middlesbrough and Bolton Wanderers. They registered 20 shots, eight on target and generated 1.86 xG in a 2-1 success.
The defeat to Bolton was particularly frustrating. Wolves created 2.44 xG and attempted 19 shots but managed only three efforts on target, eventually losing 3-1 despite producing considerably more opportunities than their opponents.
Across the campaign, Wolves average 1.76 xG and 1.05 xGA per match. Their attacking output has been relatively consistent, with 16.3 shots per game, but results have not always reflected their superiority in chance creation.
Portsmouth have collected 14 points from ten fixtures, recording four wins, two draws and four defeats. Their 13 goals scored and 13 conceded suggest a more balanced side, although recent performances have been encouraging.
A 3-2 victory over Sheffield United was followed by a 1-0 success at Norwich City. Portsmouth produced 24 shots and 2.14 xG against Sheffield United before restricting Norwich to just 0.50 xG.
The visitors have averaged 1.53 xG and 1.26 xGA this season, with their underlying attacking numbers suggesting they have created enough opportunities to score more frequently.
Wolves have three injury concerns. Adam Armstrong is recovering from a back problem, Rodrigo Gomes has a muscle injury and Raul Jimenez is expected to remain unavailable until early November because of a knee injury.
Portsmouth have more extensive selection problems. John Swift, Keshi Anderson, Josh Murphy, Conor Shaughnessy and Connor Ogilvie are among those sidelined, while Luke Brooke-Smith is out for the season. Mark Kosznovszky is also recovering from a cruciate ligament injury.
Benjamin Arthur, Thomas Waddingham and Franco Umeh-Chibueze are back in training, although their availability remains uncertain.
How the bookies view it
Wolves are priced at 8/13, implying a 61.7% probability of winning. The draw is available at 16/5, representing 23.8%, while Portsmouth are 19/4, carrying an implied probability of 17.4%.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at approximately 8/11, implying 57.5%, while both teams to score is available at 4/5, representing 55.6%.
The bookmakers clearly expect Wolves to win, although the supplied statistical model estimates their victory probability at 38.8%, with Portsmouth given a 35.1% chance and the draw 26.0%. That considerable difference warrants caution when assessing the match odds.
Head to head: Pompey hold the slight advantage
Portsmouth have the slight advantage across the 15 historical meetings supplied, recording five victories compared with four for Wolves, alongside six draws.
The clubs last met in May 2010, when Portsmouth won 3-1 at Fratton Park. They also won the most recent meeting at Molineux, securing a 1-0 victory in October 2009.
Wolves have won only two of eight home meetings, with five finishing level. Just one of those eight games produced Over 2.5 goals, although the age of these results limits their relevance to Tuesday's fixture.
Player to watch: Fer Lopez to continue to show his quality
Fer Lopez has been one of Wolves' most productive attacking players during the opening months of the Championship campaign.
The midfielder has scored four goals in nine appearances, outperforming his 3.09 xG. His 22 shots include eight on target, demonstrating his willingness to attack the penalty area and test opposition goalkeepers.
Lopez has also contributed creatively, producing 1.37 xA and creating 15 chances for teammates. That combination of shooting and chance creation makes him particularly important against a Portsmouth defence that has generally performed well away from home.
With Wolves expected to control significant periods of possession, Lopez could play a central role in finding space around the visitors' defensive midfielders and supplying opportunities for the forward line.
Predicted lineups
Wolverhampton Wanderers (4-2-3-1): Sa, Tchatchoua, Djiga, Gomes, Konan, Munetsi, Andre, Bellegarde, Lopez, Said, Neave.
Portsmouth (4-2-3-1): Schmid, Swanson, Poole, Dia, Meghoma, Pack, Mohamed, Kamara, Segecic, Kavuma-McQueen, Marezi.
Anything else catch the eye
Wolves' home record provides the strongest argument for expecting goals. They have scored eight times in four Championship matches at Molineux, averaging 2.18 xG and 17.5 shots. Three of those four fixtures have produced Over 2.5 goals, including a 4-1 victory over Stoke City and a 2-2 draw with Blackburn Rovers.
Their home xGA of just 0.84 is also revealing. Wolves have conceded six goals at Molineux despite allowing opponents relatively limited opportunities, suggesting their defensive record has been worse than the underlying performances.
Portsmouth's away results provide a contrasting picture. They have conceded only four goals in five league trips, keeping clean sheets at Charlton Athletic and Norwich City. Just two of those five away fixtures have produced Over 2.5 goals, while Portsmouth have scored five times themselves.
That makes the visitors' attacking contribution an important consideration, particularly with Murphy and Anderson among their injury concerns. There are encouraging signs in Portsmouth's recent chance creation. Across their latest four matches, they have averaged 1.69 xG, while their xGA has fallen to approximately 0.94 per game.
Those figures suggest Portsmouth are improving at both ends, although the stronger defensive performances could make this a more difficult match for Wolves than the outright prices imply.
The player data adds another dimension. Adrian Segecic has recorded 25 shots, created 13 chances and accumulated 2.24 xA in eight appearances. Ryan Kavuma-McQueen has attempted 24 shots, including seven on target, while Marezi has scored twice from 3.53 xG in six appearances. Portsmouth therefore have players capable of threatening Wolves, even if their overall away scoring record remains modest.
For the goals markets, the distinction is narrow. Both teams to score at 4/5 requires Portsmouth to find the net, whereas Over 2.5 goals at approximately 4/5 can be supported by Wolves' stronger attacking output.
The hosts have demonstrated that they can generate substantial opportunities at Molineux, while Portsmouth's recent performances suggest they are capable of contributing rather than simply defending.
GambleAware