Reem Rak was extremely disappointing at Nottingham, and I can't put my finger on why.
The only thing I can think of is that she isn't as good as I thought she would be, and what the punters thought. She was fancied in the market and was sent off the favourite. She was positioned to do damage if good enough, but she was horrendous.
Northern Viola was too keen in her race, which didn't help James Sullivan in the saddle. However, the jockey simply isn't good enough. His riding action is one that you'd expect to see from an amateur rider, and he is tactically inept and weak as a kitten.
Pierian 11/2 – Bath 3.15
I wasn't keen on Pierian as a horse, and that was why I was happy to take her on at this venue 36 days ago. However, after watching her win that race, I can see the potential in her, and I think she can give this a real good go.
Brilliant Star is the one with the best level of form, and I was expecting her to be around EVS Seeing that she is 15/8 is a big shock, as she was fourth at Royal Ascot and the form has been boosted by some of the horses in the race, including the runner-up who has won a Group 1.
Pierian has been backed in from 8/1 and is now 11/2, which is a shame that the early value has gone, but I can understand why. I thought she travelled through the race at this track over a shorter trip like a nice horse, and you could call her the winner many furlongs from home. Today's stronger opposition and longer trip pose new questions, but her pedigree gives hope that she can improve for the longer trip.
She is out of a mare who has produced horses who have stayed this trip, and they were solid black-type level horses. If this were a race for colts/geldings and they all came in with similar profiles, I'd be very confident that the favourite would win, but for some strange reason you get more shocks with the filly division.
There is going to be a strong pace on offer, and whenever Venetia is in the race, there is a possibility that she goes miles clear and they don't manage to catch her. They tried to do that last time out in a Group 3, and it nearly came off. There's no reason why they will swap tactics, as it clearly works when the jockeys don't respect her. Hopefully, Marquand can be vigilant and not allow his mount to get too far behind, as that will be a real issue.
Topwarrior 7/2 – Ayr 3.30
I really like the chance of Topwarrior for this contest, as I saw him run last time out when I tipped up City Captain at Hamilton, and I saw how well he ran in defeat.
It's very clear that testing ground is what suits Topwarrior, so arriving at Ayr with the ground being heavy and further rain expected to fall, it can't be any better for Ralph Beckett's horse. He has been lightly raced this year, with just five runs under his belt, including a break in the middle of the summer when the ground was evidently too quick. Since he has returned, his form has gotten better with every run, and I expect him to be at his best at this stage of the season, like he was last year.
He won off a 2lb lower mark at Newbury last year in a Class 3 race in October. That run was worthy of an RPR of 98, and with him being a year wiser and physically mature, and his new mark of 87 doesn't kick in just yet, he's handicapped to win this.
GambleAware