Thursday’s Racing Tips – Royal Dream looks ready to strike under Oisin Murphy at Epsom

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It was a tough day yesterday for myself and Rizz with neither of our selections running as expected. 

Thursday is a new day and hopefully, we can find a winner from somewhere in what looks like another poor day of racing.

Cairnzy's Tips

Kiss Me My Love 9/2 – Hamilton 2.20

My first selection for Thursday's racing is the Charlie Johnson trained Kiss Me My Love who was a recent winning tip on the thread before disappointing at Royal Ascot on her most recent outing.

Kiss Me My Love was unable to secure a victory in her first two starts, finishing in second place on both occasions. In her debut run, she was narrowly beaten by Up The Clarets by a length and a half. In her second race, she could not land a blow on Larchill Lass, who finished three and a quarter lengths ahead. There was no shame in defeat to Larchhill Lass, that one had two previous runs under the belt and similar to Kiss Me My Love, finished second in each of those outings and was also knocking at the door at getting off the mark.

Kiss Me My Love got of the mark at the third attempt when winning over 6f last month at Carlisle. That race has produced a next time out winner in Griselda. Now, I actually backed against Griselda the other day, as she was entered in a race at Nottingham. The horse I backed against her with was Back On Kent but the meeting was abandoned. If that race had gone ahead then I would of been able to use the outcome of that contest as a guide going into this race. The meeting was abandoned and therefore all I have to go off is the fact Griselda won next time out, which boosts the form of my selections last win.

Kiss Me My Love was thrown into the deep end on her most recent outing at Royal Ascot. She wasn't fancied at all in the market when sent of at 200/1 on the day. She finished 19/24 and 10L of the impressive winner Leovanni but in hindsight had no chance of winning that day. The Royal Ascot run was over 5f whereas her last win came over the 6f. I mentioned in my previous write up that if going by breeding, she is to appreciate further over time and given her only win came over 6f, I'm surprised that connections have dropped her back to the 5f. She's back in calmer waters in this class 4 event and can continue progressing this season.

Salamanca City 2/1 – Leicester 4.50

I'm yet again finding myself coming back to an old losing tip from recent times. If you are a regular follower of the thread you'll remember me putting her up as a selection at the beginning of the month. She was beaten by Royal Velvet that day which was a double kick in the teeth as Royal Velvet was a recent losing selection and came back to haunt me by beating Salamanca City by a nose. Swings and roundabouts as they say!

Despite letting me down last time out, there were more positives than negatives to take from the performance. She traveled sweetly throughout the race and did nothing wrong besides get beat by a nose. I'm keeping the faith with her in this contest. She's only up 1lb and this looks like an ideal opportunity for her to get off the mark.

From the remainder, Bletchley Storm arrives here in search of a hat trick, although takes a rise in class and is up 5lb which makes life a lot harder. Fun Loving from the Beckett yard is an interesting runner, that one has only raced the three times and ran it's best race to date when finishing third last time out.

Rizzel's Tips

Lermoos Legend 8/1 – Worcester 6.10

After taking a glance at the early odds, it appears that the bookies are most worried about the lightly raced horses over fences, rather than the experienced older lads. In my opinion, that's the wrong way to be going about this race as I think Lermoos Legend has a good chance and is definitely being overlooked in the market.

Chances are that there will be a rule 4 as Inigo is entered in this race, but he won over hurdles yesterday, so I highly doubt they'll be making the trip to Worcester for his chase debut in this. If they do, then you'd have to say he's got a good chance under a 7lb penalty, but it's a big risk, as he's never jumped a fence in public before and his pedigree doesn't scream out that he'd 100% make a chaser. At the odds, I cannot believe Lermoos Legend is as big as he is on a decent handicap, he has previously won at this track, he'll love the ground and the recent form is probably the best on offer.

Lermoos Legend is a strange horse as he has won over 2m and last year he won over 2m 7f, so he seems to have a bit of everything. He definitely doesn't lack speed, as he has won at Cartmel over the extended 2m 1f before, which is a very tight track with a very long run-in, which suits horses who are nimble and quick. His most recent run at Cartmel was a great effort as he was beaten by the gambled-on favourite, Dr Sanderson. The winner is owned by JP McManus and had not won a race for a couple of years, but that's probably due to them not really trying, and off a much-reduced mark of 91 with totally different front-running tactics, he bolted up, producing an RPR +17 to his rating. In hindsight, Lermoos Legend had mission impossible that day as he was giving away 14lbs to the winner, but he did run a good race, apart from the mistake at the last.

Peter & Michael Bowen have had a really productive summer, and they are operating at a 21% SR with their horses over fences, and they are profitable to back blind in this sphere, with a +24.25 to level stakes. They are 3/6 at Worcester, and 1/2 at this track with their chasers. Sean Bowen is 3/7 with chasers at Worcester this season and that has produced a +42.00 profit to level stakes.

I could be barking up the wrong tree but, the form line of Theonlywayiswessex is not great at all. The race where Theonlywayiswessex finished third at Stratford, the fourth horse was a neck behind the Alan King horse and was comfortably beaten in the race that Kauto The King finished second in last time out, and the horse in fourth from TOWIW’s win was last in the same race. The 2^nd and 3^rd have won, but I don’t think the form adds up to much, considering the horse who was a neck behind was strongly fancied in the Class 4 race but was tailed off.

Royal Dream 10/3 – Epsom 7:00

The way that Oisin Murphy is riding at the minute is sensational. Since he returned from his ban he has been red-hot, he was firing in winners regularly before his ban, but this season he's riding like a man possessed and I think he has a superb chance with Royal Dream in the 7.00 at Epsom, even with the horse carrying 10st 2lbs.

Oisin Murphy is 1/1 when riding for Ed Dunlop this year, so it's very noticeable that Ed has booked the current leading jockey in the jockey's championship for Royal Dream. This horse has done all of his winning on the AW, with four wins from thirteen runs, but that's not to mean he isn't capable of winning on the turf. The recent run at Leicester was a good effort and the form looks red-hot for the grade. The winner has followed up by winning again and the runner-up has won twice since. Royal Dream was third at Leicester and ran a blinder as he was poorly positioned in that race and did well to get as close as he did to some horses who were ahead of the handicapper.

The slightly slower surface at Epsom should not be an issue for this four-time AW winner, as his best run on turf was on good to soft at Leicester last time out. His pedigree also backs up that statement as the Sire, Muhaarar, has an 11% SR on good to soft, soft and then a 16% SR on heavy.

I am quietly confident with this horse, and I'd be surprised if he's not winning this race.

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