Of the two horses I picked out on Wednesday, Concorde Landed was the one I expected to potentially cost us from having two winners.
Concorde Landed didn't look any better from her debut effort. It was a much better race, but she was impressive on the eye in her debut effort, but was beaten comfortably by her ownermate and stablemate.
Soul Love didn't get the job done in emphatic style, but she did get it done in the end, which is all that matters. At least Karl Burke walked away from Ireland with one winner, and it was a nice win for Pierre-Louis Jammin.
Tawajjah 6/4 (1pt) – Sandown 3.30
I'm not sure on the exact reason why horses don't always run well on the back of a solid effort from a long break, but it happens quite a lot of the time and is known as ‘bouncing' in the game. I am hoping that this is not the case for Tawajjah, as he came back to the track with a huge effort for his new trainer at Newmarket earlier in the month.
On the back of that effort, you've got to say he deserves his spot at the top of the market. The form of that race and the quality of horses he ran against, and was ahead of most of them, is head and shoulders above anything in this race.
It's strange that Shadwell decided to get rid of him. Obviously, he's had problems or injuries, but the form he showed from runs when owned by Shadwell was very solid. He had bumped into many good horses, who have since gone on to much better things. Sardinian Warrior is the one which stands out the most, and he was second to that horse, who has since run well at Group 1 level.
Aperoll 11/8 (1pt) – Sandown 2.55
Seeing a short-priced juvenile bet go up in flames on Wednesday, it would be enough to stop people from trying it again. Usually, I would, but I'm going to do it anyway.
On all known pieces of form, Aperoll is the one they all have to beat, and she probably deserves to be slightly shorter in the market.
She ran a belter against the boys at Royal Ascot in the Chesham. She made the running that day, which is normally a good indicator that they fancied their chances from the get-go. She got caught late home, and probably by two good horses, including one of their debut. That piece of form is miles clear of what the others in this field have shown, so she is a solid bet on Thursday.
GambleAware
‘Bouncing’ is usually just muscle fatigue. You can’t replicate race conditions at home, so when a horse has been off the track a while it can take longer for the muscles to recover. The sort of thing you can’t spot, the horse will seem fine by looking at them. Also they can be mentally ‘flat’. Just like people you can feel mentally drained especially after gruelling physical activity, like for example, if you run a marathon you will be mentally drained for at least a week. Even just walking a marathon distance can leave you drained for a few days after. This is exactly the same with horses.
Many punters don’t take this into consideration. They think they are machines and will automatically reproduce what they did last run, which is obviously a big mistake.
The type of punters who bet big and maybe only two bets a month wouldn’t touch Tawajjah, well the smart ones wouldn’t anyway. They would look elsewhere. But there is absolutely nothing wrong with the way Rizzle has bet, it’s a 1 point win bet so no damage will be done if it does ‘bounce’.
Hot And Cold Sandown 6.55 tomorrow
Screaming out for this step up in trip over this stiff track. Sired by the French derby winner, Study Of Man and out of Heat and Dust. Along with the Prescott factor, it doesn’t take a genius to see this is what this filly needs. The Gosden runner will attract money as usual for these connections so hopefully this will hold up Hot And Colds price. This filly will win tomorrow.
Stats wise- Sandown, along with Lingfield, is the most profitable tracks for this yard. Very good level stakes profit for them here.
35% strike rate ( last five seasons) with 7 winners from 20 in handicap races ( which tomorrows race is).
Good luck today Rizz and very well done last week as I spotted you lads had a 28-1 SP winner on here.