Sunday’s Racing Tips – Tom Cannon can steer Diplomatic Ash to another victory

Mermaids Cave made a couple of bad mistakes very early into the race, and that gave her no chance.

She is a frustrating horse, as she can win races like the one yesterday, but she seems to throw in some stinking runs. Thankfully, the Nicky Henderson runner didn't manage to win, as that would have been a double salt in the wound, as she was a horse I was tempted to back.

I had a look at the results for Doncaster, and I think a fair few of them could have been picked out, but it's far too risky to get involved at this time of the year. It's like when the Jumps season begins in the later months of the year. I think it's best to give it at least a month before trying to transition to betting on the flat.

Diplomatic Ash 3/1 (1pt) – Ascot 2.30

I think this is a very strange race, as I don't think you can nail down a horse that has the best chance of winning.

Sherborne won last time out, but the race fell apart, and he was definitely flattered to win in the style he did. The handicapper has put him up a chunk in the ratings, and I think he might struggle to get the back-to-back wins. The others aren't in great form, and Nohsgreatrainbow finished a distant second last time out, but hasn't seen his rating fall much.

In the end, I thought Diplomatic Ash was the horse to settle on. Tom Cannon would appear to be a strange jockey booking for the Moore stable, but when you realise he has been in the saddle for both of this horse's wins, it makes more sense.

Like a few others in this race, his form has not been great for the last couple of runs, but he did show that he is capable of big runs when finishing second to Just Over Land on his first start of the season in November. His handicap mark is now 1lb lower than it was in November, and when you consider he won off 107 last March on good ground, he could easily bounce back to form in a weak enough race.

The drop back to 2m 4f from 3m has to be a huge positive, and the cheekpieces making a return is always a pointer towards a big run. Also, this time of year could be the time to catch him right. He won both of his races last year in March, and if you sit in the camp that he needed the run last time out, then that's another reason to be optimistic.

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