Royal Ascot was a good week. We had two antepost winners, a few winners on the main thread, and quite a lot of placed horses on the each-way Lucky 15 page.
The draw bias was a nuisance for four of the five days, making it nearly impossible to win if you were drawn low on the straight track. Ascot need to get a grip of this before next year. This has happened for far too long, and it's not good enough from the best flat festival in the world.
It's back to normal racing for a little while, so it's just one selection for Sunday.
Coedana 4/1 (1pt) – Pontefract 3.05
With the week that William Haggas has had, I can see why Orionis is the price she is for this race. This is a big step up in grade for her, but she did beat a subsequent winner whilst giving away over 20lbs. I think she is on the short side at 5/2, so I'll take a look elsewhere.
On form, Revoir probably deserves to be the favourite. She is a consistent filly at this level, and this might be the easiest opportunity for her to break her Class 1 duck. I still have a sneaky feeling that she is best on testing ground.
Coedana has drifted out to a backable price, and that is where my money will land. Edward Bethell's lightly raced filly has improved on every run since her debut. She isn't a winning machine, but the numbers have gotten better with every start, and based on last time out, she could take another step forward.
She was second in a Listed race on her seasonal return, and then finished third in a Group 3. In all fairness, the winner is a Group 1 filly, and the runner-up was a Group 2 winner last year, so it was a very solid effort. Coedana was staying on towards the finish, so I believe that the stiff Pontefract finish, up the hill, will play a big part in this race for us.
at 4/1 I think she offers great value, and based on how the early market has moved, she might drift out to an even bigger price. If she does drift further, I think that would be a bit daft, as she is one of the leading players in this.
The only downside is the draw, and I expect her to be ridden cold under Connor Beasley. There doesn't seem to be a lot of pace, so making ground up from the rear could be an issue.
GambleAware